GF Sec research pointed out that anta sports (02020) is a high-quality target with high stability and profitability in the textile and even consumer industries, mainly due to: (1) The forward-looking strategic vision of the management team, the expansion of sales scale and the successful cultivation of high-gross-margin FILA brand drive the company's revenue scale and gross margin improvement. The root of efficient management lies in an efficient incentive mechanism and a deeply ingrained iron army culture. (2) The company continues to promote channel flattening and refined operation, strong channel power enables the company's fee rate and turnover rate to outperform the industry.
The bank pointed out that the future sports footwear and clothing industry in China is expected to maintain steady growth. In terms of expansion space, there is still a large development space for per capita consumption and penetration rate of sports footwear and clothing in China; in terms of driving factors, national policies and economic development will drive the sustained and steady growth of the sports footwear and clothing industry, while sub-industries such as skiing, outdoors, and women's sectors are expected to drive industry development. In addition, according to data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, spending on sporting goods in the USA has recovered to pre-epidemic levels first, leading other retail sub-sectors. Sports footwear and clothing market share is easy to concentrate on leading brands, and the competitive landscape is stable.
The bank stated that it predicts the company's EPS for 2024-2026 to be 4.76/4.76/5.39 yuan per share, excluding the one-time profit and loss contribution from the Amer listing in 2024 (after exclusion, the company's EPS for 2024 is expected to be 4.19 yuan per share). Referring to comparable companies, considering the company's superior channel management and cost control capabilities compared to the industry, with strong performance certainty, the company is given a 24-year PE valuation of 20 times, corresponding to a fair value of 92.45 Hong Kong dollars per share, maintaining a "buy" rating.
