消息方面，随着2024年国庆假期的临近，旅游市场迎来了全面复苏的迹象。据携程发布的《2024国庆旅游预测报告》，今年的国庆假期出游热潮预计将全面回归，尤其是长途游和出境游的需求呈现出显著增长。携程平台的签证办理量同比去年激增了70%。①How is the travel data during the National Day Golden Week? ②How do institutions view the performance of aviation/airlines industry?
Caifinance News, September 27 (Editor: Hu Jiarong) Benefiting from the National Day Golden Week travel rush, most of the aviation/airlines sector in the Hong Kong stock market strengthened. As of the time of publication, $CHINA SOUTH AIR (01055.HK)$,$AIR CHINA (00753.HK)$,$CHINA EAST AIR (00670.HK)$they have respectively risen by 16.06%, 13.61%, 10.94%, significantly outperforming the large cap.
During the same period, Hong Kong$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$increased by 3.64%.$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$Electronic component producer, KEMET, rose nearly 7% this week.
On the news front, with the approaching National Day holiday in 2024, the tourism market has seen signs of comprehensive recovery. According to Ctrip's "2024 National Day Tourism Forecast Report", this year's National Day holiday travel boom is expected to fully return, especially with a significant increase in demand for long-distance and outbound travel. The visa processing volume on the Ctrip platform has surged by 70% compared to last year.
Tuniu's data also confirms this trend, with the proportion of domestic long-haul trips accounting for 52%, while outbound trips account for 28%, indicating that more and more people choose to travel long distances during holidays.
Furthermore, Flight Butler's data shows that due to the overlap of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays in 2023, the high travel intensity resulted in a higher base number. In addition, affected by this year's Typhoon Bebi Jia, the daily average air passenger transportation volume during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday decreased year-on-year. However, looking ahead to the upcoming National Day holiday (October 1st to October 7th), the passenger transportation volume is expected to exceed 2.3 million person-times daily, an 8.3% year-on-year increase.
At the same time, the central government recently announced a series of policies, many of which are related to stimulating consumption. CITIC Securities pointed out that the market has already sent positive policy signals, and it may be expected to continue to anticipate more targeted and effective growth-stabilizing policies in the future.
CITIC Securities also pointed out that the focus of future fiscal policies may shift towards benefiting people's livelihoods, tilting towards promoting consumption. Assisting middle- and low-income groups and boosting the trend of consumption upgrades may be the focus of work. The shift in the focus of fiscal expenditure is expected to enhance the efficiency of fiscal growth stabilization.
Institutions predict the acceleration of presales during the National Day holiday.
GTJA pointed out that presales for the National Day holiday are accelerating, with OTA flight searches increasing by 10% year-on-year, and the growth rate of presales volume continuing to rise. Against the backdrop of aviation supply and demand recovery, it is expected that even in the off-season, demand will remain resilient, and international flight additions will continue to drive supply and demand recovery. With the recovery of supply and demand, profit margins are expected to rise.
Wanlian Securities also shares a similar view. They expect that in the fourth quarter, international routes will continue to show a recovery trend, while domestic routes will maintain steady growth, thus maintaining a 'outperform the market' rating for the tourism industry.
Editor/ping
