上证指数仅用3个交易日，就从2700多点突破了3000点。成交量，再次突破万亿，创近5个月新高。A股主要大盘指数，本周涨幅均超6%，其中上证50指数本周涨幅更是达11.86%。Citic indicated that the overall rise of A-share large cap is driven by confidence and a return of morale; Morgan Stanley observed the surge of optimism in A-shares, while also believing that the scale, speed, and execution of stimuli are crucial for maintaining the rebound to the next level; Goldman Sachs is starting to see FOMO in China's domestic market, and the market consensus is beginning to change. This time may not be a contrarian trade.
Burning hot! From domestic brokerages to overseas institutions, they have clearly expressed their bullish views on Chinese assets.
From the beginning of the week, when major financial regulatory agencies gathered and announced major stimulus policies, to the rare analysis of the economic situation during the September Political Bureau meeting on Thursday, signaling significant fiscal and monetary support, this series of actions has completely ignited optimistic sentiments at home and abroad, marking a historic turnaround for Chinese assets.
The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3,000 points in just 3 trading days from over 2,700 points. Once again, the trading volume exceeded trillions, hitting a new high in nearly 5 months. Major A-share index this week all rose by over 6%, with the sse 50 index soaring by 11.86%.
For the future market, Citic Securities succinctly summed it up in one word: Go!
Goldman Sachs stated that unprecedented stimulus measures have driven up bullish sentiment in A-shares. From a technical perspective, the CSI 300 index may rise by another 10% in the short term. They also believe that the scale, speed, and execution of the stimulus are crucial for maintaining the rebound to the next level.
Goldman Sachs' fund flow experts are shouting out: This 'China trade' is different from before!
Citic: Go!
On September 26, citic sec released a research report with a one-word title "Dry". The report believes that the overall rise in the A-share market is attributed to confidence and the return of morale.
The signal is clear, summarized in one word: Dry!
Morgan Stanley: Market sentiment is very optimistic.
Morgan Stanley stated that unprecedented stimulus measures have boosted the optimistic sentiment in the A-share market. Morgan Stanley holds a positive attitude towards China's stimulus policies, believing that the scale, speed, and execution of the stimulus are crucial for maintaining the rebound to the next level.
According to analysts like Laura Wang, data from a report released on September 26 by Morgan Stanley shows that the weighted and simple MSASI indicators measuring investor sentiment in the A-share market have increased by 27 and 20 percentage points respectively compared to September 11, reaching 58% and 53%.
Introduced by Morgan Stanley in March 2019, the MSASI index aims to measure the level of market sentiment in the A-share market using direct quantitative data, including margin financing balance, new registered investors, A-share turnover, GEM turnover, northbound turnover growth rate, equity index futures turnover growth rate, relative strength index of the CSI 300 index based on a 30-day period, number of limit-up A shares, and range of profit forecast revisions.
Data observed by Morgan Stanley shows that the average daily trading volumes of the GEM, A shares, single stock futures, and northbound trading increased by 20%, 29%, 51%, and 35% respectively from September 12 to 25 compared to the previous period (September 5 to 11). The relative strength index of the CSI 300 index on a 30-day basis increased by 21 percentage points compared to September 11.
Based on an analysis of the refinancing plan borrowing cost of 2.25% and the current dividend yield of 2.46% for the CSI 300 index, Morgan Stanley predicts that from a technical perspective, the CSI 300 may rise by about 10% in the short term.
However, Morgan Stanley also stated that the scale, speed, and implementation of stimulus policies are very important.
We believe that quick follow-up may be the most crucial at this time, with clear execution, implementation, and timetable.
Goldman Sachs fund flow expert: This 'China trade' is different from previous ones!
In a report released this Thursday, Rubner, Managing Director of Goldman Sachs Global Markets, stated that Goldman Sachs is beginning to see a FOMO mentality in China's domestic market, fearing missing out on the rise. The market consensus is changing, and this time may not be a contrarian trade.
Goldman Sachs believes that the current position is very advantageous for Chinese stocks. Rubner listed several signs as evidence:
Demand for Chinese stocks is at a record high. On Tuesday, September 24, Goldman Sachs' Prime Brokerage (PB) book showed the largest single-day net inflow of Chinese stocks since March 2021, and the second largest single-day net buying volume in the past decade, driven almost entirely by long positions.
From a fund flow perspective, on Wednesday, September 25th, Goldman Sachs observed continuous demand for Chinese stocks, with continued buying by long positions.
Chinese stocks have been bought for eight consecutive days in Goldman Sachs' PB business (macro managers, algo and multi-strategy managers, i.e., short-term traders) instead of the traditional long/short stocks or only long (LO). Stocks may be forced to rise.
As of the end of August, the global mutual fund allocation to Chinese stocks accounted for 5.1% of assets, a level that is lower than 99% of the past decade.
As of the end of August, the actively managed mutual funds' allocation to Chinese stocks was 310 basis points lower than the benchmark on an asset-weighted basis.
In Goldman Sachs PB accounts, the total allocation and net allocation to China remain very low, currently below the levels of 93% and 86% in the past five years respectively.
Prior to the recent rebound, hedge funds had less than 7% allocation to Chinese stocks, which is the lowest point in five years.
Editor/ping
