US economic data still resilient, boosting expectations of a soft landing, with US stocks rising slightly across the board. Stocks benefiting from China's stimulus policies surge across the board, including China concept stocks soaring nearly 11%, Gaotu/TAL Education both rising over 23%, luxury goods concept stocks skyrocketing, Hermes and LVMH group both rising over 10%. Raw materials and technology sectors lead the gains, with the raw materials industry boosted by China and the technology sector boosted by Micron Technology, as stronger-than-expected performance highlights solid AI environment and the recovery of traditional servers. The energy sector lags behind significantly due to the sharp drop in oil prices. Global central banks are cutting interest rates one after another, boosting risk appetite, with defensive stocks, real estate, utilities, and necessities lagging behind.

• US three major indices rise together: S&P 500 index closes up 23.11 points, up 0.40%, at 5745.37 points, hitting a new closing historical high. Dow Jones Industrial Average closely related to the economic cycle closes up 260.36 points, up 0.62%, at 42175.11 points. Nasdaq with a majority of tech stocks closes up 108.09 points, up 0.60%, at 18190.29 points. Nasdaq 100 rises by 0.72%, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC) that measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 tech sector components rises by 1.13%. More sensitive to the economic cycle.E-mini Russell 2000 Index Up by 0.57%. Fear index VIX falls by 0.26%, at 15.37.

• Most of the US stock industry ETFs closed higher. The global aviation industry ETF rose nearly 5%, the semiconductor ETF rose nearly 3%, global technology stocks rose over 1.5%, technology industry ETFs, regional bank ETFs, and biotechnology index ETFs all rose at least 1%. However, the energy industry ETF fell nearly 2%, and the utilities ETF fell over 0.5%.

• Most of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index closed higher. The materials sector closed up 1.97%, leading the gains, followed closely by the information technology/technology sector which rose 0.89%, the telecommunications sector rose over 0.3%, ranking second to last in gains, the real estate sector closed down 1.05%, with the second largest decline, and the energy sector fell 2%.

• "Tech's Big Seven" had mixed movements. Tesla rose over 1.8% and then fell to close down 1.09%, Amazon rose over 1% and then fell to close down 0.71%, Microsoft closed down 0.19%, Meta, part of the "Metaverse", closed down 0.08%. Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun praised the prototype of Meta's Orion AR glasses launched, stating that the weight of 100 grams "holds significant importance", while Nvidia rose nearly 3.4% at the beginning of trading and closed up 0.43%. Apple closed up 0.51%, Google Class A shares rose over 1.6% then closed up 0.77%.

• Most chip stocks rose. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 3.47%. The industry ETF SOXX closed up 3.57%; Nvidia's double-leveraged ETF rose 0.7%. Micron Technology closed up 14.73%, rising nearly 20% during the session, marking the largest single-day increase since 2011, with last quarter's revenue surging over 90% and this quarter's guidance far exceeding expectations. Taiwan Semiconductor's US shares closed up 2.46%. Applied Materials closed up 6.23%, ASML ADR closed up 4.19%, KLA Corp closed up 4.21%, Arm Holdings closed up 1.86%, Intel closed up 1.61%, Broadcom closed up 1.46%, AMD closed up 3.38%, Qualcomm closed up 2.61%, ON Semiconductor closed up 5.27%, and Marvell Technology closed up 3.19%.

• AI concept stocks varied with more rises than falls. Super Micro Computer closed down 12.17%, falling nearly 18.6% during the session. The US Department of Justice is investigating Super Micro Computer for alleged accounting irregularities. CrowdStrike closed down 1.74%, Palantir closed down 0.05%, Snowflake closed down 0.12%, while SoundHound AI, a company Nvidia has holdings in, closed up 0.41%, Serve Robotics closed up 0.65%, Oracle closed up 1.09%, BigBear.ai closed up 1.29%, BullFrog AI closed up 1.72%, Dell Technologies closed up 5.26%, and C3.ai closed up 0.87%.

• Chinese concept stocks surged. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 10.85%, marking the largest single-day increase since 2022, reaching 6958.10 points. In the ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed up 9.68%. The Chinese Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed up 11.55%. The FTSE China 3x Bull ETF (YINN) closed up 23.55%, while the FTSE China 3x Bear ETF (YANG) closed down 23.13%.

• Among the popular China concept stocks, Bilibili closed up 15.44%, Mengniu Dairy ADR closed up 15.22%, JD.com closed up 14.39%, New Oriental closed up 14.16%, Pinduoduo closed up 13.57%, Meituan ADR closed up 12.86%, Nio Inc. closed up 2.3%, Li Auto Inc. closed up 6.73%, Kanzhun closed up 4.92%, XPeng closed up 11.89%, Vipshop closed up 10.4%, Trip.com closed up 10.96%, Netease closed up 4.88%, Alibaba closed up 10.07%, Baidu closed up 0.09%, Tencent Holdings ADR closed up 9.29%, Miniso closed up 10.21%.

Major European stock indices collectively rose, with the German index up 1.7% to a record high at the close, led by housewares with a 4.6% increase, luxury goods stocks all rising, with LVMH and Kering both up nearly 10%.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up 1.25% at 525.61 points, breaking the previous closing high of 525.05 points set on August 30th. All sectors rose, with housewares stocks leading with around a 4.6% increase, mining and technology stocks up 4.3% and 3% respectively, while oil and gas stocks fell by 3%. Among the constituents, BP plc in the oil and gas sector fell by 4.1%, and Shell fell by about 4.3%. Boosted by China's "policy gift package", luxury goods stocks in Europe all rose, with French luxury giants LVMH and Kering up 9.88% and 9.61% respectively, Hermes up 9.10%, L'Oreal up 6.96%, and L'Oreal up 5.71%.

On the news front, the German and Italian banking giants are in a power struggle, with Deutsche Bank seeking independence and UniCredit looking to acquire. Deutsche Bank will hold its first meeting with UniCredit tomorrow.

The German stock index rose 1.69%, closing above the psychological barrier of 0.019 million points for the first time in history. The French stock index rose 2.33%. The Italian stock index rose 1.68%. The British stock index rose 0.20%. The Spanish stock index rose 1.36%. The Dutch stock index rose 0.62%.

Better-than-expected economic data from the United States weighed on rate cut expectations, with the two-year U.S. Treasury yield rising by about 7 basis points. Investors are concerned about France's fiscal situation, with French bond risks exceeding Western bonds for the first time since 2007.

• In the U.S. bond market, the more sensitive two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.95 basis points at the close, hitting 3.6287%, trading between 3.5245% and 3.6287% intraday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose by 1.14 basis points to 3.7963%, trading between 3.7526% and 3.8191% intraday. At 20:30 Beijing time, the release of U.S. GDP, durable goods orders, and weekly jobless claims data caused a significant drop in the first five minutes followed by a sharp rebound and subsequently hitting a daily high.

• Citigroup analysts pointed out that as the proportion of people feeling "hard to find jobs" increases, the U.S. economy may be facing a risk of a "hard landing", similar to the situation in September 2001. The rise in unemployment reflects a soft recruitment market, not an increase in labor supply. This could lead the Federal Reserve to take more aggressive rate cut measures in November, cutting rates by 50 basis points. Fitch Ratings predicted in its "Global Economic Outlook" report that the upcoming loose monetary policy cycle by the Federal Reserve will be more moderate and slower than before, with service industry inflation still too high, raising its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2024 from 2.1% to 2.5%, expecting a global growth rate of 2.7% in 2024, slightly higher than the previous forecast, with upgrades in forecasts for the UK, Brazil, and Russia as well.

• Eurozone's 10-year German bond yield rose by 0.9 basis points. The yield on the two-year German bond rose by 0.8 basis points. France's 10-year bond yield rose by 1.4 basis points, with investors concerned about France's fiscal situation. Italy's 10-year bond yield fell by 4.1 basis points, Spain's 10-year bond yield fell by 1.2 basis points, marking the first time since 2007 that it fell below comparable French sovereign bond yields. The UK's 10-year bond yield rose by 2.0 basis points, and the two-year UK bond yield rose by 0.2 basis points.

• On the news front, (1) Considering the steady decline in inflation, the Swiss National Bank announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut to 1%, the third consecutive rate cut. After the decision was announced, the market increased bets on a rate cut by the ECB, with expectations for another 50 basis point cut by the end of the year. (2) Research institutions predict a small contraction of 0.1% in the German economy this year, contrary to the growth forecast of 0.1% in March. The German Economic Institute pointed out that apart from the economic downturn, Germany also faces challenges of structural changes.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell more than 0.3%, the yen fell below the 145 mark to a more than three-week low intraday, offshore yuan rose above 7, rose over 610 points to a more than one-year high during the day, and bitcoin hit a new high since July.

• The U.S. dollar: A basket of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring against six major currencies, fell by 0.33% to 100.574 points.

• The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.42% to 1221.05 points, trading in a range of 1226.15-1219.72 points during the day, remaining in a downward trend throughout the day.

The U.S. dollar gave back most of the gains from Wednesday.

• Non-U.S. currencies generally rose: the euro rose 0.40% against the U.S. dollar, the pound rose 0.70% against the U.S. dollar, and the dollar fell 0.51% against the Swiss franc; among commodity currency pairs, the Australian dollar rose 1.04% against the U.S. dollar, the New Zealand dollar rose 1.04% against the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar fell 0.12% against the Canadian dollar.

• Candriam fund manager believes that the market's judgment on the Bank of England's interest rate path is wrong, the pound's rally will end, and it may decline significantly. Fund manager Jamie Niven is preparing to short the pound against the euro, pointing out that the market's expectation gap for the final interest rate levels in the UK and the eurozone is too large, and crowded positions may exacerbate the downward trend.

• Yen: The yen resumed its decline, falling below the 145 level intra-day for the first time since September 4. The yen fell 0.47% against the euro to 161.89 yen; the yen fell 0.75% against the pound to 194.308 yen.

• Offshore Chinese Renminbi (CNH) breaks through the 7.00 threshold again: Offshore Renminbi rose 598 points at the close to 6.9730 yuan, rising throughout the day, hitting a high of 6.9713 yuan at the close, reaching a new high in over a year.

• Cryptocurrencies are all rising. The largest market cap leader Bitcoin rose 2.38% at the close to $64,705.00. The second largest Ethereum rose 2.25% at the close to $2,637.50.

Reports suggest that OPEC's top member Saudi Arabia is considering increasing production, coupled with easing tensions in Libya, both bearish for oil prices. WTI crude oil fell nearly 4% below $67 during trading, and Brent crude fell below $71 to the lowest point.

• US Oil: WTI November crude oil futures closed down $2.02, a drop of nearly 2.90%, at $67.67 per barrel, approaching the September 10 closing price of $65.14.

• Crude oil: Brent crude oil futures for November fell by $1.86, a decrease of 2.53%, to $71.60 per barrel, also approaching the closing price of $69.19 on September 10th.

• Intraday performance: WTI and Brent crude oil remained in a downward trend throughout the day. At midday in the Asian session, there was news that Saudi Arabia intended to regain market share, accelerating the decline in both oil markets. Later, during the early trading session in the US stock market, news of easing tensions in Libya eased concerns about supply disruptions, leading to both oil prices hitting daily lows. WTI crude oil fell by over 3.9% to below $67, breaching the $67 mark, while Brent crude oil fell by over 3.7% to approach $70.70. Earlier this week, both oils benefitted from China's "policy stimulus package" driving the prices up.

• On the news front, firstly, Libyan government officials signed an agreement to end the dispute over control of the central bank. Previously, two Libyan governments (one of which is internationally recognized) were vying for control of the central bank, leading to a sharp drop in oil exports. Secondly, individuals familiar with Saudi Arabia's plans revealed that Saudi Arabia is prepared to abandon the $100 per barrel target for crude oil and increase production to regain market share, accepting the current lower oil prices. Informed sources stated that Saudi officials promised to resume production by December 1st, even if it leads to long-term lower oil prices. This shift in mindset represents a significant change for Saudi Arabia, as since November 2022, Saudi Arabia has been leading other OPEC+ member countries in multiple production cuts to maintain high oil prices.

• Natural Gas: US October natural gas futures fell by 1.97%, to $2.5850 per million British thermal units.

Positive factors for oil prices this week include China's stimulus plan, improved US economic data, Fed rate cuts, and a sharp drop in inventories, but on Thursday, oil prices plunged due to bearish factors related to Saudi Arabia and Libya.

Gold, silver, and copper all surged. Aided by rate cuts from major central banks such as China and the US, compounded by escalating tensions in the Middle East, spot gold broke above $2850 during intraday trading to reach a new historical high. Silver, as a key industrial material under China's stimulus policy, also reached a 12-year high during intraday trading. London copper closed up more than 2.7% to surpass the $0.01 million mark, hitting a three-month high:

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures rose by 0.39% in the final trading session, reaching $2695.00 per ounce, with pre-market US stocks rising by over 0.8% to $2708.70, setting a new historical high. In early Asian market trading, spot gold dipped slightly as investors took profits, but then continued to rise. Pre-market US stocks continued to hit new highs, rising by nearly 1.1% to above $2685, closing up by 0.58% to $2672.38 per ounce. Driven by US rate cuts, safe-haven demand, and strong central bank buying, gold prices have risen by over 29% this year.

• Silver: COMEX December silver futures rose by 0.88% in the final trading session, to $32.30 per ounce, with pre-market US stocks rising by over 3% to break above $33. Spot silver maintained an upward trend throughout the day, with pre-market US stocks rising by over 2.8% to surpass $32.70, hitting a new high since 2012 (the historical peak was $49.8044 on April 25, 2011). By the end of trading, it rose by 0.67% to $32.0180 per ounce, with silver prices having risen by over 36% so far this year.

• The analysis points out that silver is both a safe-haven investment and a key material for industrial applications. Amelia Xiao Fu of BOC International believes that rate cut expectations and China's stimulus policies will continue to drive the silver price higher in the coming quarters, with a target price of $37.

• On the news front, according to CCTV News, opposition leaders have stated that Israel should accept the ceasefire proposal at the Lebanon-Israel border, but only for 7 days. The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that the Security Council must act immediately to stop Israel's acts of war, implement an immediate ceasefire, or else the Middle East will face the risk of a comprehensive conflict eruption. The defense minister approved plans to continue attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon.

• Most industrial base metals in London rose. The economic barometer "Dr. Copper" rose by 2.73% to $10,080 per ton, COMEX copper futures rose by 3.53% to $4.6480 per pound. LME zinc rose by 3.40%. LME aluminum rose by 2.87%. LME tin rose by 1.04%. LME lead rose by 1.91%. LME nickel fell by $51.

• Iron ore, which rose nearly 8% in the first two trading days, rose by 3.5% to $99.90 per ton.

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