Fundstrat全球顾问公司联合创始人兼研究主管Tom Lee认为，周三美股出现波动，部分应该归咎于即将到来的美国总统选举。On the evening of the 26th Beijing time, the US stock market opened higher on Thursday. The revised value of the US GDP for the second quarter met expectations. Investors are paying attention to speeches by several Federal Reserve officials including Powell to further understand the future interest rate cut path. The market is also focusing on the US federal government debt crisis issue and the US presidential election.
On the evening of September 26th Beijing time, the three major U.S. indices opened high collectively, with the S&P 500 index hitting a new all-time high intraday. As of press time,$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$up 0.52%, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ up 0.99%, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ up 0.61%.
On Wednesday, US stocks closed mixed, with the S&P 500 index down 0.2% and the Dow down 0.7%, but earlier in the day, both indices hit intraday record highs. The Nasdaq closed slightly higher.
Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, believes that the stock market volatility on Wednesday should be partly attributed to the upcoming US presidential election.
He said, "The stock market's performance next month is a bit like flipping a coin, which is what we predicted. Some repositioning is happening, and we are now looking at the presidential election 40 days from now. Many investors do not want to make big bets before election day. I think it is not important who wins the election, investors just want to wait for the election results to make decisions."
On Thursday's economic data front, the US Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims in the US fell to 0.218 million last week, a four-month low.
In recent months, despite the rise in the US unemployment rate and the slowing pace of job creation, the number of initial jobless claims has remained low.
Economists say this is because workers eligible for such benefits have not been unemployed. While weekly layoffs remain very low, this month has seen several major companies announce or implement layoff plans. Paramount Global conducted a second round of layoffs on Tuesday.
General Motors announced last week that it will temporarily lay off two-thirds of the workers at an assembly plant in Kansas until mid-2025. If layoffs increase in the coming months and more Americans find themselves unemployed, Federal Reserve officials may consider cutting interest rates at a faster pace than currently expected.
The final actual annualized quarterly rate for the US GDP in the second quarter was 3%, as expected, with a previous value of 3.00%.
Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak on Thursday, including Powell, Collins, Kugler, Baumann, Williams, Barr, and Cook. Investors will look for clues from the Fed on whether there will be another significant rate cut in November.
Fed Governor Kugler stated on Wednesday that she "strongly supports" last week's Fed's 50 basis point rate cut and added that further rate cuts would be appropriate if inflation continues to decline as expected.
This weekend, the Fed's preferred price indicators and data on consumer demand are expected to confirm last week's aggressive rate cut decision and Powell's view that the economy remains strong.
The Fed's most favored inflation measure - the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - will be released on Friday. Analysts say that if the data shows stubborn inflation pressures, it may slightly dampen expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut.
The current market expects a 62% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's November policy meeting, with the total expected rate cut for the year at 77 basis points.
The issue of the U.S. federal government debt crisis has resurfaced.
Both houses of the U.S. Congress passed a temporary spending bill on Wednesday to avoid a partial government shutdown next week. The bill has been submitted to U.S. President Biden for signature.
It is worth noting that another round of congressional wrangling is expected to occur later this year. Democrats and Republicans will have to negotiate on annual government appropriations. The more critical deadline is January 1st next year when they either raise the country's debt ceiling or face the risk of a federal government debt default exceeding 35 trillion U.S. dollars.
上述临时支出法案在众议院以341票赞成、82票反对通过，在参议院则以78票赞成、18票反对通过。
当前资金将于周一午夜到期，而这项短期资金法案将政府的年度可自由支配资金水平维持在约1.2 trillion美元，直至12月20日，确保联邦工作人员继续工作，政府服务持续至11月5日大选。
在众议院的投票中，所有反对票均来自共和党。法案的通过是为了避免政府在资金耗尽后出现停摆。此外，法案还包括了对特勤局的额外拨款0.231 billion美元，以应对共和党总统候选人特朗普遭遇的两次暗杀事件，以及增加了总统过渡资金。
临时拨款法案为国会争取了更多时间来协商更长期的拨款法案。去年，国会通过了几项临时法案，即所谓的持续决议，最终才就2024财年预算达成一致。在这个过程中，众议院议长凯文-麦卡锡被罢免，由迈克-约翰逊接任。
Key sectors & stocks
半导体板块走强，美光科技大涨超17%，迈威尔科技、AMD涨超3%，台积电、英伟达涨近3%。
热门中概股大涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超10%；贝壳涨超16%，京东涨超12%，理想汽车、拼多多涨超10%，百度涨超9%，阿里巴巴涨超7%。
中国资产ETF美股强势上涨，$Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF (YINN.US)$ Surged over 21%, $Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Index Bull 2x Shares ETF (CWEB.US)$ Rose over 20%, $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB.US)$ Up more than 10%, $iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI.US)$ up more than 7%.
$Micron Technology (MU.US)$ Rising by about 17%, AI demand drives a strong increase in Q4 revenue of over 90%, exceeding performance guidance.
$Intel (INTC.US)$ Rising by over 12%; alibaba and jd.com further interconnection, with taobao soon integrating jd.com logistics, and jd.com will integrate with alipay.
$JD.com (JD.US)$ Early gains exceeded 3%, now up over 1%; the company releases the powerful Zen 6 performance processor.
$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE.US)$ Surging more than 20%, announced executive changes to drive the implementation of its dual-brand strategy.
$Accenture (ACN.US)$ Up over 7%, fourth-quarter revenue and profits both exceeded expectations, with optimistic prospects for future growth.
Editor / jayden