Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (NYSE:TMHC), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a significant share price rise of 27% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. The company is inching closer to its yearly highs following the recent share price climb. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company's outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Let's examine Taylor Morrison Home's valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there's still a bargain opportunity.
What's The Opportunity In Taylor Morrison Home?
The share price seems sensible at the moment according to our price multiple model, where we compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. We've used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there's not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock's ratio of 9.68x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers' ratio of 12.09x, which means if you buy Taylor Morrison Home today, you'd be paying a decent price for it. And if you believe Taylor Morrison Home should be trading in this range, then there isn't much room for the share price to grow beyond the levels of other industry peers over the long-term. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Taylor Morrison Home's share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
What does the future of Taylor Morrison Home look like?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it's the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Taylor Morrison Home's earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 29%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in TMHC's positive outlook, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven't considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at TMHC? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio?
Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping an eye on TMHC, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the optimistic forecast is encouraging for TMHC, which means it's worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
Since timing is quite important when it comes to individual stock picking, it's worth taking a look at what those latest analysts forecasts are. At Simply Wall St, we have the analysts estimates which you can view by clicking here.
If you are no longer interested in Taylor Morrison Home, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
