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降息后美股继续上攻?高盛泼冷水:别忘了美国大选这一风险

Will US stocks continue to rise after the rate cut? Goldman Sachs pours cold water: Don't forget about the risk of the US election.

Zhitong Finance ·  Sep 26 19:51

After rebounding in the U.S. stock market since the summer selloff, Goldman Sachs strategists warned in a report that the high-risk U.S. presidential election could disrupt investors' optimism towards U.S. stocks.

According to Tencent Finance APP, after rebounding in the U.S. stock market since the summer selloff, Goldman Sachs strategists warned in a report that the high-risk U.S. presidential election could disrupt investors' optimism towards U.S. stocks.

Led by Christian Mueller Glissmann, the team stated, 'Policy uncertainty is increasing,' especially uncertainty related to U.S. corporate tax reform, which may test the bullish positions in the stock market. Since mid-July selloff, U.S. stocks have been rising.

He warned that people are becoming more concerned about when companies will see the benefits of high AI spending, which could also put pressure on U.S. stocks. Mueller Glissmann remains neutral on stock markets in various regions, but he believes that 'international diversification will bring more benefits by the end of the year.'

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After the summer decline earlier this year, U.S. stocks have returned to historic highs, with investors betting that timely rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will prevent an economic recession. In recent days, signs of more stimulus measures from China have also boosted market sentiment.

Furthermore, seasonal trends also indicate a positive outlook for the S&P 500 index. Compiled data shows that over the past 25 years, the index has averaged a 4.7% increase in the fourth quarter.

However, market strategists have been warning that corporate profits are easily impacted by policy changes after the presidential election. A team at Goldman Sachs earlier this month said that the profits of s&p 500 index constituent companies could fluctuate in the range of 5% to 10%, depending on how policies are formulated and whether Trump's 2017 tax cuts are allowed to expire.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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