On September 26, the Central Political Bureau meeting for the first time clearly stated the goal of "promoting market stabilization and preventing further declines", and requested adjustments to respond to concerns and adjust real estate purchase restrictions.

On September 26, the Central Political Bureau of the CPC held a meeting. The meeting emphasized the importance of stabilizing the real estate market by strictly controlling the increase of commodity housing, optimizing existing stock, improving quality, increasing loan support for "white list" projects, supporting the activation of idle land resources. Responding to public concerns, adjustments will be made to real estate purchase restrictions, reducing interest rates on existing housing loans, and expediting the improvement of land, fiscal, tax, financial policies, to promote the development of a new real estate model.

At the central level, there is room for lowering mortgage rates and adjusting taxes and fees in real estate policies.

Firstly, there will be further downward adjustments in central mortgage rates. The Political Bureau meeting required "reducing the reserve requirement ratio and implementing effective interest rate cuts". The central bank announced on the 24th to guide simultaneous downward adjustments in loan and deposit market quoted rates. It is expected that the LPR quotation on the fastest October 20 may be reduced by 20-25 basis points, thereby further lowering central mortgage rates.

Secondly, there will be adjustments in lowering real estate transaction taxes and fees. The Political Bureau meeting required "strengthening countercyclical adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, expediting the improvement of land, fiscal, tax, financial policies". This round includes exemptions for deed tax, value-added tax, individual income tax, and other real estate transaction taxes and fees, promoting housing consumption. Individual purchases of their first home are exempt from deed tax. Families purchasing a second home or making significant improvements enjoy reduced deed tax, as well as shortened periods for real estate transaction value-added tax and individual income tax exemptions.

In addition to incremental support, implementing existing supportive policies such as reducing interest rates on existing loans, refinancing for affordable housing, and financing white lists are important policy goals. For example, detailed regulations on reducing interest rates for existing loans are yet to be implemented and clarified, including how and by how much the reduction will be, as well as subsequent support for interbank mortgage transfers, aiming to quickly ease residents' financial burdens and alleviate the trend of early repayment.

03 Including adjustments and cancellations of purchase restrictions in 6 cities including first-tier cities, the new local regulations will be accelerated to optimize existing stock and improve quality.

We believe that Guangzhou is the city most likely to lift purchase restrictions comprehensively among first-tier cities, followed by Shenzhen, while the possibility of Beijing and Shanghai completely lifting purchase restrictions is low. In addition, policies such as limiting loans, sales, and standard housing in first-tier cities are also expected to undergo optimization adjustments. For example, Beijing recently announced the timely removal of the distinction between ordinary and non-ordinary residences, which will further reduce the burden of housing transaction taxes and fees.

The demand-side policies in second and third-tier cities mainly focus on incentive measures in terms of credit policies, old-for-new policies, and housing purchase subsidies. For example, it is expected that the down payment ratio for second homes will be adjusted to the national minimum of 15% as soon as possible, the recognition rules for limited loan numbers will be relaxed, and there will be increased housing subsidies, as well as increased incentives for housing ticket resettlement.

On the supply side of policies, first, there is a push for the construction of high-quality residences, optimizing the density regulations to increase the proportion of usable space, moderately reducing the reserve ratio for high-quality project presale funds, encouraging high-quality and fairly priced properties, and no longer implementing new housing price guidance. Second, promoting pilot sales of existing properties, such as conducting sales of high-quality commodity residential land plots, postponing fees such as city infrastructure construction fees for on-sale projects, increasing the development loan quotas for on-sale projects, extending the development loan periods, and lowering the development loan interest rates.

Editor / jayden