Tesla Inc.'s stock price surged in September, and Baird analyst Ben Kallo predicts that the electric car giant's stock price will continue to rise further after announcing car delivery data next week.

He expects that about a week after Tesla announces car delivery data, Tesla's 'Robotaxi Day' will be an even greater potential bullish factor for the stock.

"We believe the recent developments are bullish, we are bullish on Tesla's delivery data (expected to be released on October 2), as well as Tesla's Robotaxi Day event (scheduled for October 10)," Kallo wrote in a research report to clients. He reiterated a 'outperform' rating on Tesla's stock and a target price of $280.

As of Tuesday, Tesla's stock price has risen by 18.8% in September, with the potential to achieve its best monthly performance since November 2023, with a 19.5% increase. The stock closed up 1.08% on Wednesday.

Kallo stated that he sees a 'positive' trend in delivery volumes, based on car insurance registration data in China, third-party data verification, and considering Tesla's factories have not experienced shutdowns this quarter. He expects Tesla's third-quarter deliveries to reach 0.48 million vehicles, a 10.3% increase from the same period last year, far exceeding FactSet's current market average expectation of 0.462 million units.

Kallo predicts Tesla's total deliveries for the full year of 2024 to be 1.83 million vehicles, higher than FactSet's market average expectation of 1.78 million units. However, he believes that even if actual deliveries are slightly below expectations, investors should continue to buy the stock.

"Given that Tesla's Robotaxi Day event is scheduled shortly after the expected delivery data release date, we speculate that even if deliveries meet or fall short of expectations, investors will not be concerned, as a major potential catalyst will soon follow," Kallo wrote.

He anticipates that during the Robotaxi Day event, Tesla will launch a low-priced electric car that can be manufactured on Tesla's existing production lines. He believes this release will align with comments regarding the first deliveries in the first half of 2025.

Although there may be "favorable and unfavorable factors," Kallo believes that lower-priced autos will boost the outlook for tesla stocks.

"We believe that launching a low-priced auto will have a positive impact on the sales expectations for 2025, but we note that retooling production lines to manufacture a new car may temporarily halt some factories, potentially leading to unstable tesla delivery volumes," Kallo wrote.

As of Tuesday, tesla's stock price has risen by 35.7% in the past three months, while the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF has declined by 3.2% during the same period, and the s&p 500 index has risen by 4.8% during the same period.