轮胎行业空间广阔，24 年以来全球轮胎需求维持增长。长逻辑看，2023年全球轮胎销售额约1900 亿美元，市场空间广阔。而近年来轮胎三巨头米其林、普利司通和固特异市场份额下降显著，三家合计市场份额从2003 年的55.7%下降至2022 年的38.9%。中国轮胎企业快速崛起，抢占市场份额。Key points of investment:
The company's products are positioned as high-end, and the products are mainly large tires over 17 inches. The company's products include economical passenger car tires, high-performance passenger car tires, and special tires such as racing tires and aviation tires. The company's products are positioned as high-end, and the products are mainly 17 inch and above large-size high-performance passenger car and light truck tire products. Large-size tires have continued to account for more than 60% of sales in recent years.
The company continues to implement the “833” plus global layout strategy. The company plans to deploy 8 digital intelligent manufacturing bases around the world in about 10 years. At the same time, it was possible to operate 3 R&D centers and 3 user experience centers, and take the opportunity to merge and acquire an internationally renowned tire company. At present, the company has a factory in Qingdao and a factory in Thailand. It currently has a production capacity of 28 million semi-steel tires and a production capacity of 2 million all-steel tires. Overseas plans include 12 million half-steel tires production capacity in Morocco and 12 million half-steel tires in the Spanish factory. The global layout continues to advance.
The tire industry has vast space, and global tire demand has continued to grow for 24 years. Looking at long-term logic, global tire sales in 2023 will be about 190 billion US dollars, and the market space is vast. However, in recent years, the market share of the big three tire companies Michelin, Bridgestone, and Goodyear declined significantly. The total market share of the three companies fell from 55.7% in 2003 to 38.9% in 2022. Chinese tire companies are rapidly rising to seize market share.
In the short term, tire demand in major regions around the world has recovered significantly since 24 years. According to Michelin's official website, global demand for passenger car and light truck tire replacement increased 4% year on year from January to June 2024, and global demand for truck and bus tire replacement (excluding China) increased 4% year on year.
Sea freight prices have declined somewhat since July, creating a marginal advantage on the cost side. As of July 19, 2024, China's export container composite freight index has risen sharply by 130% compared to the beginning of 2024.
Sea freight rates have loosened since mid-July. According to Wind data, as of September 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index had dropped 36.6% compared to the high in early July.
The company has fully benefited from the reduction in PCR anti-dumping duty rates in Thailand, and the layout of its Moroccan and Spanish plants ensures long-term growth. 1) On January 25, 2024, Mori Kirin issued an announcement. The final ruling results of Thailand's PCR anti-dumping review were released, and the corporate tax rate was drastically reduced from 17.06% to 1.24%.
This reduction in the tax rate will help increase the profits of the company's Thai factory and enhance the competitiveness of the company's exports to the US. 2) The company plans to build 12 million semi-steel tire production capacity in Morocco and 12 million semi-steel tire production capacity in Spain. The company's long-term growth is guaranteed, and its ability to cope with trade barriers is further strengthened.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 9.379, 11.883, and 13.824 billion yuan, respectively; net profit to mother will be 2.22, 2.615, and 2.901 billion yuan, respectively; EPS will be 2.16 yuan, 2.54 yuan, and 2.82 yuan respectively. Using the comparable company valuation method, according to Wind's unanimous expectations, the average valuation of comparable companies in 2024-2026 is 9.65, 7.78, and 6.56. The company's current valuation ratio is slightly higher than the industry average. Considering that the company is a leading enterprise in the tire industry, the net interest rate level is leading in the industry, and the orderly release of the company's future production capacity to guarantee long-term growth, the company can be given a certain valuation premium. First coverage, giving the company a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
New construction projects at home and abroad fell short of expectations, prices of raw materials such as natural rubber fluctuated, international trade frictions intensified, and demand fell short of expectations.
