Haitong International research indicates that LI Auto Inc (02015) achieved revenue of 57.31 billion yuan in 24H1, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with 24Q2 revenue of 31.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24%. 24H1 net income was 1.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48%, with 24Q2 net income of 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 86%. In 24Q2, the company delivered 0.109 million new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 25% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35%. The per vehicle income in 24Q2 was approximately 0.279 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.044 million yuan and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.022 million yuan. LI Auto Inc is the first among new energy vehicle companies to achieve a positive net income and operating cash flow. In 2023, LI Auto Inc achieved a net income of 11.8 billion and operating cash flow of 50.7 billion yuan.
The bank stated that according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers sales data, LI Auto Inc sold a total of 0.048 million new vehicles in August, with LI Auto L6 sales of 0.024 million vehicles, accounting for 52% of total sales. LI Auto L7 and LI Auto L9 ranked second and third with shares of 21% and 14%, respectively. From January to August 2024, LI Auto Inc sold a total of 0.288 million new vehicles, an increase of 38% year-on-year. From January to August 2024, LI Auto Inc's monthly share in the domestic SUV market ranged from 2.9% to 5.7%, steadily increasing. In different price segments, with the launch and delivery of L6, LI Auto Inc's market share in the 0.2-0.3 million yuan SUV market rapidly increased, while also impacting the sales of some L7/L8 models. LI Auto Inc's market share in the 0.3-0.4 million yuan and 0.4-0.5 million yuan SUV market segments declined to varying degrees. From January to August 2024, WENJIE had a monthly share in the domestic SUV market of 3.1%-5.0%. In the higher price segments, with the launch and delivery of M9, WENJIE's sales of SUVs priced above 0.4 million yuan grew rapidly, capturing nearly 50% of the market share in the SUV market priced above 0.5 million yuan. Competitive landscape in the 0.2-0.5 million yuan SUV market: LI Auto Inc remained stable with a quick rise in market share post L6 launch; BBA: BMW stabilized, Audi and Mercedes saw slight decreases in market share; Joint ventures: Volkswagen and Toyota saw slight decreases in market share, Honda was significantly affected; BYD: In 24Q1, the Honor edition prices were reduced to below 0.2 million yuan.
The bank predicts that the company's new car sales will be 0.49/0.69/0.83 million vehicles in 2024/25/26 respectively (remaining stable), with revenues of 144/203.6/246.8 billion yuan respectively (remaining stable), and net income attributable to shareholders of 6.8/12.5/17.8 billion yuan, and EPS of 3.20/5.88/8.39 yuan respectively (remaining stable). Considering the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry, the bank used the PS method for company valuation with the closing market cap on September 24, 2024, corresponding to PS multiples of 1.2/0.9/0.7 times for 2024/25/26. Referring to comparable companies, the bank assigned a 1.3x PS multiple for the company in 2024, corresponding to a fair target price of 96.70 Hong Kong dollars (converted at an exchange rate of 1 HKD = 0.9124 RMB, consistent with the previous target price). The rating of 'outperforming the market' is maintained.