8 月公司销量YOY-10.6%，将受益于补贴新政：8 月公司销售整车18.7万辆，YOY-10.6%，MOM+9.7%，增量主要来自于新能源汽车和出口。8 月公司自主新能源销售4.88 万辆，YOY+21.5%，占销售比重为26.1%。其中深蓝汽车、长安启源和阿维塔分别月销20131 辆、12823 辆和3712 辆，MOM 分别为+20%、+3%和+2%。8 月公司自主品牌海外销量为2.57 万辆，同比增41.6%。1-8 月，公司累计销量为169.2 万辆，YOY+3.6%。其中自主品牌新能源累计销量为39.3 万辆，YOY+59.8%，自主品牌海外累计销售22.86 万辆，YOY+67.7%。Several of the company's brands have been intensively launching new models recently. The NEV product matrix will be further improved, and independent NEV sales are expected to grow further. As various regions raise trade-in subsidies and the popularity of the automobile market picks up, the company's sales volume is expected to improve in September.
Deep Blue and Avita are speeding up the launch of new products, further improving the NEV product matrix, and increasing competitiveness. As the scale effect increases and supply chain costs are reduced, the company's profitability is expected to recover. In the medium to long term, initiatives such as cooperation with Huawei in smart driving and the layout of overseas markets will help the company accelerate transformation and open up market space. We expect the company's net profit for 2024/2025/2026 to be 8.1/9.7/11.7 billion yuan, respectively, and the growth rate will be +7%/+20%/+21% after excluding dark blue in 23. EPS is 0.82/0.98/1.18 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 15.3/12.8/10.6 times. It is recommended to “buy”.
Recently, the company has been intensively launching new products, and the new energy product matrix has been further improved: several of the company's brands have recently intensively launched new models. On September 20, the Deep Blue L07 was launched. It is a mid-size new energy sedan. Like the S07, it is equipped with Huawei's ADS SE intelligent driving assistance system. The price is 0.1519-0.1739 million yuan. Previously, the brand released the new Deep Blue S07 at the end of July, with orders for 14,231 units in one month; Deep Blue will release the S05 in October, positioned as a compact SUV, the first 3C overcharged in its class. Thanks to the support of Huawei's smart driving technology, the Deep Blue brand has differentiated competitiveness in the 0.15-0.2 million range. In August, the Deep Blue brand sold 20131 units, MOM +20%. With the launch of new cars, brand sales are expected to continue to rise. The Avita brand will launch its third product, the Avita 07, on September 26. It is positioned as a mid-size SUV. The price is expected to be around 0.25 million. It is the brand's first pure electric range dual-power product. The brand will be fully extended this year, and Avita 11 and 12 extended-range versions will also be launched during the year. Furthermore, on September 23, all Avita smart driving systems were upgraded to the Huawei Gankun Smart Driving ADS3.0, leading the smart driving level in the industry. On the Changan autonomous side, the crossover Changan Qiyuan E07 recently began pre-sale, with a pre-sale price of 0.2499 million-0.3199 million.
The company's sales volume in August YOY -10.6% will benefit from the new subsidy policy: in August, the company sold 0.187 million vehicles, YOY -10.6%, MOM +9.7%. The increase mainly comes from new energy vehicles and exports. In August, the company independently sold 0.0488 million vehicles with YOY +21.5%, accounting for 26.1% of sales. Among them, Deep Blue Auto, Changan Qiyuan, and Avita sold 20131, 12,823, and 3,712 vehicles each month, respectively, while MOM was +20%, +3%, and +2%, respectively. In August, the overseas sales volume of the company's own brands was 0.0257 million vehicles, an increase of 41.6% over the previous year. From January to August, the company's cumulative sales volume was 1.692 million vehicles, YOY +3.6%. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of own-brand NEV was 0.393 million vehicles, YOY +59.8%, while the total overseas sales volume of the own-brand NEV was 0.2286 million vehicles, and YOY +67.7%.
In September, various regions introduced new automobile trade-in subsidy policies. The amount of subsidies increased significantly compared to the previous one. According to the Passenger Federation data, the national passenger car wholesale volume increased 5% year-on-year from September 1 to 22. The popularity of the automobile market picked up, and the company's sales volume is expected to improve in September.
Profit forecast: We expect the company's net profit for 2024/2025/2026 to be 8.1/9.7/11.7 billion yuan, respectively, and the growth rate will be +7%/+20%/+21% after excluding the influence of dark blue in 23. EPS is 0.82/0.98/1.18 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 15.3/12.8/10.6 times. It is recommended to “buy”.
