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鲍威尔讲话来袭、小心金价剧烈波动!别忘了美国重量级数据 如何交易黄金?

Powell's speech is coming, beware of violent fluctuations in gold prices! Don't forget about heavyweight USA data. How to trade gold?

FX168 ·  Sep 26 15:43

#GoldTechnical Analysis#24K88 News On Thursday (September 26), spot gold traded near $2663 per ounce in the early European session. FXStreet Senior Analyst Dhwani Mehta's latest article on Thursday analyzed the technical trend of gold prices.

On this trading day, gold traders will focus on remarks from Fed Chair Powell and several other Fed officials. In addition, the US will release heavyweight data such as GDP, and these factors are expected to trigger sharp fluctuations in gold prices.

Mehta wrote that gold prices continued their consolidation pattern below historical highs near $2670 per ounce, as buyers became cautious ahead of a series of speeches by Fed policymakers later on Thursday. The extremely overbought conditions on the daily chart continue to make gold buyers cautious.

Mehta pointed out that among the Fed officials appearing on Thursday, the remarks of Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be crucial in determining the magnitude of the next rate cut, especially with the market expecting a 62% likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in November.

At 21:20 Beijing time on Thursday, Fed Chairman Powell pre-recorded a video for the opening remarks at the New York Fed's 2024 Treasury market conference.

Last Wednesday local time, the Fed announced a 50 basis point rate cut. Fed Chairman Powell stated at a press conference, 'Do not interpret the 50 basis point rate cut as a new rate cut pace.'

In addition to Powell, several Federal Reserve officials will speak on Thursday. At 21:15 Beijing time on Thursday, Fed Governor Bowman will speak on economic prospects and monetary policy; at 21:25 Beijing time on Thursday, New York Fed President Williams will speak; at 22:30 Beijing time on Thursday, Fed Governor Barr will speak.

Mehta stated that before Federal Reserve officials speak, US durable goods orders, the second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) final value, and weekly initial jobless claims will provide some trading incentives for the gold price. Risk sentiment will also play a key role, as focus will shift to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday after Powell's speech.

At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the final value of the actual GDP for the second quarter, with an expected annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.0%.

In addition, at 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the preliminary value of US durable goods orders for August will be released, with an expected monthly decrease of 2.6%; the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims for the week ending September 21 in the US will be announced, expected to be 0.225 million.

How to trade gold?

Mehta pointed out that from a short-term technical perspective, the outlook for the gold price has not changed, as the price is still in extremely overbought territory, indicating that a meaningful correction may be imminent.

Currently, the 14th dayRelative Strength Index(RSIHovering near 76.

Mehta stated that if buyers regain lost momentum, then the gold price breaking through the record high near $2670 per ounce is crucial for further rise towards the resistance level of $2700 per ounce.

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(Spot gold daily chart source: FXStreet)

On the other hand, Mehta added that any pullback in the gold price could potentially test the low of September 24 at $2623 per ounce. If it breaks below this level, then $2600 per ounce will serve as support. Looking further down, gold sellers may target the low of September 20 at $2585 per ounce.

At 15:37 Beijing time, spot gold is reported at $2663.18 per ounce.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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