■Future prospects for JSH ＜150A＞

1. Earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025

The financial results for the fiscal year ending 2025/3 are a 2-digit increase in sales of 4,111 million yen, up 18.1% from the previous fiscal year; 258 million yen, up 24.2% from the same period in operating income; 256 million yen, an increase of 31.5%; and an increase of 32.6% in net income to 192 million yen, which is expected to update record high results. It looks like regional revitalization projects centered on employment support for people with disabilities will continue to take the lead, but the home health care business is also expected to increase sales and profit due to an increase in the number of visits, and it will absorb an increase in company-wide common expenses (551 million yen, 27.5% increase from the same period) due to personnel increases, etc. Non-operating balance improved slightly, but this is due to the disappearance of the 13 million yen public offering expenses recorded in the previous fiscal year.

The performance plan for each business segment is that the regional revitalization business is 2,544 million yen, up 22.0% from the previous fiscal year in terms of sales, 564 million yen, up 21.7% from the same period in operating income, 1,566 million yen with a 12.2% increase in sales, and 246 million yen with a 38.8% increase in operating income. Sales volume (113 million yen in the previous fiscal year) of the 3 home-visit nursing stations in Kyushu was changed from the regional revitalization business to the home health care business from the 2025/3 fiscal year, and the real sales increase rate converted from the previous fiscal year using the same standards is a 29.0% increase in regional revitalization business and a 3.8% increase in the home health care business.

In the regional revitalization project, the number of people with disabilities accepted is planned to increase 26.4% from the end of the previous fiscal year to 1,456 people (net increase of 310 people), and 1,819 lots (450 lots increase), which is a 32.9% increase in the total number of lots. As a new farm, in addition to opening “Cordiale Fukuoka” (144 lots) in 2024/7, it was announced that “Cordiale Kumamoto South (90 lots)) will be established in September of the same year, “Cordiale Okayama” (42 lots) in 2025/1, and “Cordiale Sapporo” (63 lots) in February of the same year, and plans for the number of lots will be achieved with the opening of the remaining 1 to 2 locations. Furthermore, the company announced plans to acquire a newly built property in Kumamoto prefecture to expand the same business in 2024/8 and make it a “flagship base” in Kyushu. The investment amount is 550 million yen, and it is planned to open in 2025/9 or later. The northern region of Kumamoto prefecture, where it was established, was triggered by the establishment of a new factory by a major semiconductor manufacturer in Taiwan, and since a wide range of companies in addition to semiconductor-related companies have expanded, leading to an expansion of employment opportunities for people with disabilities, the company also decided to expand. The scale of the farm is not disclosed, but there is no doubt that it will be the largest ever, and it is expected to contribute to the increase in the number of people with disabilities accepted after the 2026/3 fiscal year.

In the home health care business, there are no plans to open a new base, and an increase in sales and profit is expected by increasing the number of visits to existing bases and increasing the operating rate of nurses. The number of visits is planned to increase 12.8% from the previous fiscal year to 173,000 (the actual growth rate excluding the effects of segment changes at the 3 locations in Kyushu is 1.9% increase).

Furthermore, the first quarter results for the fiscal year ending 2025/3 announced in 2024/8 were 967 million yen, up 20.8% from the same period last year in terms of sales, and 71 million yen, up 658.1% from the same period last year in terms of sales. The progress rate against the full-year plan showed a steady start, with sales of 23.5% and operating profit of 27.6%. By business segment, the regional revitalization business is planning to increase 27.5% in sales to 585 million yen (progress rate 23.0%), segment profit to increase 62.9% to 145 million yen (same 25.7%), the home health care business to increase 12.4% in sales to 382 million yen (same 24.4%), and segment profit to increase 212.5% to 50 million yen (same 20.3%).

Among regional revitalization businesses, first-quarter sales of employment support businesses for people with disabilities were 575 million yen, up 36.6% from the same period last year, of which recurring sales increased 34.1% to 515 million yen, and recruitment sales increased 62.2% to 60 million yen. The number of companies using it was 179, an increase of 7 companies from the end of the previous fiscal year, and the net increase in acceptance of people with disabilities was 75 and progressed smoothly against the full-year plan of 310 people. Although there is a possibility that an increase in demand due to the increase in the legal employment rate in 2024/4 is included, since “Cordiale Fukuoka,” which has 144 lots, which is the largest ever, and “Cordiale Kumamoto South,” which has 90 lots, will operate in 2024/7, respectively, it is expected that the number of acceptances will increase at a pace higher than the same period last year even after the 2nd quarter.

The number of users of home-visit nursing services in the home health care business increased 8.5% from the same period last year to 2,098 people at the end of the first quarter (1,949 people, 0.8% increase when excluding the Kyushu base), and the number of full-time equivalent nurses increased 2.0% to 135 people (120 people, down 9.4% from the same period). Since recruitment of nurses increased in the same period last year due to the opening of the “Home-Visit Nursing Station Cordiale Sapporo,” etc., it seems that it was at the level of about 132 people excluding the Kyushu base, but after that, due to personnel optimization at bases with low occupancy rates, it became 117 people as of the end of 2024/3, and there was an increase of 3 people from there. The number of visits is 41,000, and progress is generally as planned at 24.1% compared to the 173,000 cases in the full-year plan, but the number of monthly visits per full-time converted nurse is 101.0, which is a slight drop from 101.7 in the previous fiscal year results, and it is thought to be a factor that the progress rate of segment profit remained at a slightly low level of 20.3%.

(Author: FISCO Visiting Analyst Joe Sato)