The Swiss National Bank will announce the interest rate decision at 15:30 on Thursday (September 26) Beijing time. The median of media surveys shows that the Swiss National Bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.00%. However, some of the market bets that the Swiss National Bank will cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

Earlier in the New York session on September 18, the media consensus on the Federal Reserve's decision was disappointed. The media expected a 25 basis point rate cut, but the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the market also believes that there is roughly a 50/50 chance of the Swiss National Bank cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in today's decision.

However, prior to the decision of the Swedish Central Bank on September 25, a similar situation occurred in the market: the media survey median was an expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, but some market speculators bet on or were concerned about a 50 basis point rate cut. The result was a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.25%. But it implied a further 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year.

Let's take a look at the latest developments in central bank decisions in 168 countries/regions globally.

There are a total of 74 rate cuts, 84 maintaining rates, and 10 rate hikes. [Among them, there are 39 countries/regions where the rate cut is 50 basis points or more, including the Eurozone and its member countries. Excluding the Eurozone's member countries, the corresponding central banks are 21, including the Federal Reserve.]

(A chart: the latest interest rates, recent rate changes, graphics, and rankings of 168 countries/regions as above)

Interpreting the latest situation: The country with the largest rate hike in the most recent decision is Gambia, with a rate hike of up to 700 basis points; the country with the largest rate cut in the most recent decision is Zimbabwe, with a rate cut of 11,000 basis points; that is, -11,000 basis points. Countries/regions with significant rate hikes are actively tightening monetary policy. Countries/regions with significant rate cuts are actively implementing monetary easing policies. For more information, please refer to the chart produced by Analytics.

Scenario analysis: If the swiss franc central bank cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, the swiss franc will strengthen because some investors' expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut will be disappointed. If the swiss franc central bank cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, the swiss franc will weaken because investors who originally bet on a 25 basis point rate cut will sell the swiss franc.

From a technical perspective, the USD/CHF has been trading in a sideways range between 0.8400-0.8540 recently, with signs of a rebound on the daily chart. However, the 4-hour chart is currently approaching the 200 moving average resistance. ★ If the swiss franc central bank cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, the swiss franc will strengthen, and the USD/CHF will move back towards the lower boundary of the horizontal range, with support levels to watch at 0.8464, 0.8416, 0.8389-0.8373. If it reaches below 0.8389, it may attract buying interest, as the USD clearly has an interest rate advantage. ★ If the swiss franc central bank cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, the swiss franc will weaken, and the USD/CHF will rise above the 4-hour 200 moving average, opening up upward potential. Resistance levels to watch above are 0.8550-0.8560, 0.8662, and 0.8720, with 0.8747 not far above being an ideal shorting point, as even in an upward trend, significant downward pressure may occur.

(Chart: USD/CHF 4H Technical Analysis Chart)