特钢新材料业务盈利稳定。特钢新材料业务以提高产品单吨毛利为首要任务，以新能源领域、核电领域、汽车领域、高端装备制造领域为重点方向，进行市场开拓，汽车发动机用高温合金、核电钢、气阀钢等高附加值产品比例增加明显。根据销售订单，按照最优原材料配比的原则进行采购，并且控制采购节奏，实现了采购成本低于市场价格。24H1 特钢新材料业务实现毛利率12.31%，同比+1.79pct。Key points of investment:
Event: The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 4.49 billion yuan, -32.5%; net profit to mother of 0.77 billion yuan, or -59.6% year-on-year; net profit of 0.6 billion yuan after deduction, -68.4% year-on-year. Among them, Q2 revenue was 2.19 billion yuan, -4.7% month-on-month; net profit to mother was 0.3 billion yuan, or -35.9% month-on-month; net profit after deduction was 0.3 billion yuan, or -3.9% month-on-month. A cash dividend of $5.00 (tax included) is distributed to all shareholders for every 10 shares.
Lithium business costs continue to improve: 1) Volume: The company has maintained a stable cooperative relationship with downstream customers. According to the average price of non-ferrous networks, the company's H1 lithium carbonate sales volume is about 0.0135 million tons, an increase of about 5% over the previous year. Of these, 24Q2 sales volume is 0.0066 million tons, which is a slight decrease from month to month. 2) Price: In the first half of the year, lithium prices rose and then fell, and fluctuated greatly. According to SMM data, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the first half of 2024 was 0.104 million yuan, -68.4% year-on-year. Among them, the average price of Q2 battery-grade lithium carbonate was 0.106 million yuan, +4.3% month-on-month. 3) Profit: In the first half of the year, the company controlled cost reduction first. Through a series of tasks such as accurate mining and classification of raw ore, improving technical breakthroughs in mineral processing and yield, optimizing smelting yield and crystallization rate, optimizing procurement methods, and increasing sales revenue from by-products, the operating cost of a single ton of lithium carbonate was only 0.05 million yuan, a reduction of more than 10% over the previous year.
The profit of the new special steel materials business is stable. The new special steel materials business has the primary task of increasing the gross profit per ton of products. Market development is carried out with a focus on the field of new energy, nuclear power, automobile, and high-end equipment manufacturing. The proportion of high-value-added products such as high temperature alloys, nuclear power steel, and air valve steel for automobile engines has increased markedly. According to sales orders, procurement is carried out according to the principle of optimal ratio of raw materials, and the pace of procurement is controlled, so that the procurement cost is lower than the market price. The 24H1 Special Steel New Materials Business achieved a gross profit margin of 12.31%, +1.79pct year-on-year.
Production expansion on the resource side is progressing steadily, and technical reform on the smelting side is gradually being promoted. 1) Resource side: The company completed the mining license expansion change at the beginning of the year. The certified production scale has been changed from 3 million tons/year to 9 million tons/year, and work related to production safety permits and mine renovation and expansion projects is currently being carried out; Yongcheng Lithium's 3 million ton mining and production capacity construction has basically been completed and has entered the equipment installation stage. 2) Smelting side: The lithium mica green intelligent and efficient lithium extraction comprehensive technical reform project will carry out technical modifications to the roasting system, leaching filter system, exhaust system, and some evaporation and wet systems in the production line of the current battery-grade lithium carbonate project with an annual output of 0.01 million tons. Currently in the approval phase, the construction time is expected to be 9 months.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We have lowered the lithium price assumption. We expect the company's net profit to be 1.142/1.266/1.675 billion yuan in 24-26 (the value was 1.394/1.74/2.031 billion yuan 23-25 years ago), and EPS was 2.12 yuan, 2.35 yuan, and 3.11 yuan, respectively. Maintaining a “buy” rating considering the company's continued cost reduction and steady expansion of production.
Risk warning
The risk of lithium price fluctuations, the risk of regional environmental problems, and projects under construction fall short of expectations.
