According to the Zhitong Finance and Economics app, Morgan Stanley released a research report stating its bullish position on the shipping industry, maintaining a 'shareholding' rating for cosco shipping holdings (01919), Evergreen, and OOIL (00316), and raising its earnings forecast by 13.2% and 35% for cosco shipping holdings and OOIL respectively for this year, and by 11.8% and 7.7% for next year. The target price for OOIL has been reduced from 175 Hong Kong dollars to 166 Hong Kong dollars.

The report states that the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) has previously stated that it has not yet been able to schedule a meeting with the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) on the new contract negotiation arrangement, which may trigger a strike on the U.S. East Coast. In addition, the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with Israel launching a new round of airstrikes against Hezbollah bases in Lebanon and conflicts escalating. As the traditional peak season comes to an end, the shipping industry may face a new round of supply chain disruptions.

The bank indicates that industry forecasts suggest a slowdown in demand in the coming months, but it is expected that there will not be a significant adjustment in freight rates in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead to 2025, the industry's supply-demand imbalance may improve. Morgan Stanley points out that the total supply growth based on new ship deliveries has peaked between 2023 and 2024, and is expected to slow down between next year and 2026. Coupled with stricter emission standards for vessels, effective control of supply growth should be achievable.