此外，該行看好快手(01024.HK)的廣告增長，但對其電商的商品交易總額(GMV)放緩感到憂慮。公司組合變化帶來的利潤增長、新措施(本地服務及海外)虧損收窄，以及營運開支控制是主要的上行風險。該行維持對快手的目標價為50元及「與大市同步」評級。Morgan Stanley's report points out that the average price of products on online entertainment platforms (especially in the music and gaming sectors) is low, with lower expected correlation with macroeconomic fluctuations in China. Most of the core business of online entertainment platforms lacks sufficient monetization, leaving room for expanding market share, especially in terms of advertising, but each company has noteworthy specific risks.
The bank believes that Bilibili (BILI.US) has positive short-term factors, such as the upward potential of the third season of "Sanmao" (starting from September 22nd), strong advertising, profit growth potential with balanced income and expenses, and continuous expansion of both daily active users (DAU) and total time spent. However, in the long run, structural issues still exist due to lack of visibility on future gaming pipelines and heavy reliance on several games. Compared with peers, it is expected to have a higher PE ratio next year, but the profit margin in the first year after the balance of income and expenses may not reflect long-term profitability. The bank raised its target price from $15 to $20, maintaining a "market perform" rating.
Regarding Tencent Music (01698.HK), after the company's growth driver shifted from paying users to average revenue per user (ARPPU), the bank suggests a cautious approach as the company lacks clear momentum in net growth after experiencing seven high-growth quarters. Furthermore, more favorable performance is needed to prove the previous premium multiples in promoting the super VIP feature. The bank downgraded Tencent Music (TME.US) from "shareholding" to "market perform", lowering the target price from $15 to $13, but sees upside risks in ARPPU growth, advertising revenue, and profit expansion.
In addition, the bank is bullish on Kuaishou (01024.HK)'s advertising growth but concerns are raised about the slowdown in gross merchandise volume (GMV) from its e-commerce business. The main upside risks are profit growth from portfolio changes, narrowing losses from new initiatives (local services and overseas), and control of operating expenses. The bank maintains a target price of 50 yuan for Kuaishou and a "market perform" rating.
The bank mentioned that NetEase (09999.HK)'s 21% decline in quarterly cash income in the second quarter will be reflected in third-quarter earnings. Disappointing monetization of the mobile game "Endless of God", adjustments to the terminal of "Fantasy Westward Journey" and "Egg Party", along with the decline in revenue over time for the mobile game "Justice", have led to a further deterioration in the company's recent financial situation. Given the poor feedback on the preview of the company's potential next key game "Yan Yun Sixteen Sounds" and "Marvel Duel" as another key point at the end of the year, the bank recommends an observant approach and maintains a target price of $85 and a "market perform" rating for NetEase (NTES.US).
Compared to online entertainment platforms, the bank prefers online travel platforms (OTA) and has raised the target price for Ctrip (TCOM.US) from $59 to $61 with a "shareholding" rating.
