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贝恩:人工智能需求激增 或再度拉响芯片短缺“警报”

Bain: The surge in demand for AI could sound the "alarm" for chip shortages again.

Zhitong Finance ·  Sep 26 11:17

A report by Bain shows a surge in demand for semiconductors and AI-supporting smart phones and laptops, which may lead to the next global chip shortage with AI at its core.

According to the Securities Times app, a report released by Bain Consultancy on Wednesday shows a surge in demand for AI-centered semiconductors and AI-supporting smart phones and laptops, which may lead to the next global chip shortage.

The last serious semiconductor shortage occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, when people were forced to stay at home, leading to supply chain disruptions while demand for consumer electronics was on the rise.

Tech giants have been rushing to acquire graphics processing units (GPUs) mainly produced by Nvidia. GPUs in datacenters are crucial for training large-scale AI models, which are the foundation of applications like OpenAI's ChatGPT.

Meanwhile, companies like Qualcomm (QCOM.US) are designing chips for smartphones and personal computers to enable devices to run AI applications locally without the need for cloud-based internet connections. These are commonly known as AI-supporting devices and companies, with products of this kind being released by Samsung to Microsoft.

Bain states that the demand for GPUs and AI consumer electronics may be the cause of the chip shortage. Anne Hoecker, Head of Bain's Americas Technology Practice, said: "The surge in demand for GPUs has led to specific shortages in the semiconductor value chain."

"If we combine the growth in GPU demand with the wave of AI devices, this could accelerate the refresh cycle for personal computer products, potentially leading to wider semiconductor supply constraints."

However, it is currently unclear how large the demand for devices supporting artificial intelligence will be, and so far, consumers seem to be very cautious about these devices.

Bain also pointed out that "the semiconductor supply chain is extremely complex, with demand growing by about 20% or more, which is likely to disrupt the balance and lead to chip shortages." "The explosive growth of artificial intelligence at the intersection of the large terminal market may easily exceed this threshold and create fragile bottlenecks throughout the supply chain."

Currently, the semiconductor supply chain is distributed among multiple companies. For example, while Nvidia (NVDA.US) may design its GPU, the GPUs are manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US), which relies on chip manufacturing equipment from the Netherlands and other countries around the world. In addition, only Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics can mass produce the most advanced chips.

Geopolitics may also be a factor leading to chip shortages. Semiconductors are considered strategic technology by governments around the world. The United States has been trying to limit China's access to the most advanced chips through export restrictions and other sanctions measures. At the same time, the United States has been focusing on enhancing domestic semiconductor production capacity.

Bain stated "Geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions, and the decoupling of multinational tech companies' supply chains with China continue to pose serious risks to semiconductor supply. Delays in factory construction, material shortages, and other unpredictable factors could also lead to inflection points."

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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