In the second half of 2024, Morgan Stanley predicts that domestic passenger traffic in China will remain flat year-on-year.
According to the Securities Times app, Morgan Stanley has released a research report stating a 'shareholding' rating for MTR Corporation (00066), with a target price of 30 Hong Kong dollars unchanged. Due to the increase in outbound tourism, MTR's local passenger traffic in August decreased by 2% compared to the same period last year, at 95% of 2018 levels. Airport Express passenger volume increased by 15% annually, reaching 83% of 2018 levels.
The report states that in terms of China's border, cross-border and high-speed rail passenger volumes increased by 20% and 8% respectively, at 86% and 236% of 2018 levels. High-speed rail passenger volume reached a record high. In the second half of 2024, Morgan Stanley expects domestic passenger traffic in China to remain flat year-on-year. A 3.1% increase in ticket prices and growth in cross-border passenger volume will drive up railroad profits. Compared to other retail trade companies, the improvement in railroad profits can alleviate the downward pressure on retail rents, making profits more resilient.