Sina US Stock, January 10 — On the eve of the US non-farm payroll report released by the US on Friday, a key technical indicator of the EUR/USD exchange rate may set the tone for this year's trend.

The 21-day EMA currently at 1.1139 is expected to surpass the 200-day EMA at 1.1140 for the first time since 2017/5. After the last gold fork over two years ago, the euro climbed about 11% against the US dollar over the next few months.

Since the euro hit its lowest level in more than two years in October last year, its short-term outlook has been constructive. Speculative accounts have been buying euros near the double bottom of $1.0981-89. Traders' sentiment became more positive as economic data beat expectations. Analysts in the market almost unanimously predicted that the euro would rise before the end of the year.

However, optimism about the euro has not helped the euro break through its recent consolidation range, and implied volatility at historically low levels has discouraged momentum accounts. If Friday's non-farm payroll data can stimulate trading, then the moving average is likely to gain strength. Conversely, if the 21-day moving average falls, it could signal trouble for the euro and push it to a new two-year low.

Due to the high weight of the euro in the dollar index, the results are likely to have a wide range of effects.