In the past three months, the volume of NVIDIA, the darling of AI, sharply declined, dragging down the nominal options trading volume of individual US stocks. Goldman Sachs' options expert John Marshall believes that this indicates a decrease in risk appetite among retail and hedge fund investors.

However, this current situation of sluggish trading may change soon. Because every October, the volatility of US stocks usually experiences a seasonal rebound, so there is the potential for volatility to rise.

Marshall pointed out that Goldman Sachs found that from 1996 to 2023, the average nominal daily trading volume of stocks and options peaks every October. Since October is the earnings season, publicly listed companies often manage their performance to the end of each calendar year and provide guidance for the following year, making the next few weeks an important period for trading activity.

In addition to corporate earnings, Goldman Sachs also noted the existence of over 300 key non-profit catalysts across various industries. Marshall mentioned some key events, such as the US CPI, Tesla's Robotaxi launch event, AMD's AI Day, and many other analyst events held by various companies.

Currently, including Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, Google's parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook's parent company Meta, and Tesla, the options trading of the seven tech giants in the US stock market accounts for about 60% of all S&P 500 options trading volume. In recent weeks, except for NVIDIA, the trading volume of other tech giants has been increasing.

Among them, Tesla is particularly prominent, with its options accounting for 17% of the S&P options trading volume, exceeding NVIDIA, whose options trading volume accounts for 14%.

Wall Street institutions are bullish on Tesla's third-quarter performance. Based on July's global electric vehicle sales data and August's car registration/production data in Europe and China, Barclays analyst Dan Levy estimates Tesla's third-quarter delivery volume to be around 0.47 million units, significantly higher than the market's general expectation of 0.461 million units.

Moreover, Levy pointed out that Tesla's third-quarter auto sales growth was driven almost entirely by the Chinese market. He believes that good delivery data will help maintain positive market sentiment until Tesla releases its self-driving taxi Robotaxi on October 10th, which can at least avoid potential stock price impact from recent fundamental issues.

Some analysts also believe that the release of Robotaxi will be a key turning point for Tesla, as Tesla is shifting from traditional car manufacturing to focusing on autonomous driving technology, partly relying on its Dojo AI supercomputer for support.

Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the details revealed at the Robotaxi launch will be crucial. Key areas investors will focus on include the timetable for Robotaxi to start commercial operation (including technical readiness and considerations in operation/regulation/logistics), as well as business prospects (including how Tesla's cost structure compares to competitors).

Goldman Sachs also mentioned that investors have long been anticipating the launch of a new low-cost Tesla model, which may be on the agenda during the Robotaxi launch event in October.

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