One indicator closely watched by Wall Street. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ The demand indicators for the new generation of iPhone seem to be flashing red lights. A recent report from Morgan Stanley pointed out that the delivery time for iPhone 16 is shorter than the first three iPhone new product cycles.

The report mentioned that as of Tuesday, September 24, within the first 11 days after Apple started taking orders, the delivery time for the iPhone 16 in the USA was 15.2 days, while the average delivery time for the iPhone 15 series in the same period last year was 25.7 days, and for the iPhone 14 series it was 18 days. In international markets outside the USA, the delivery time for iPhones also showed a similar downward trend, with an average delivery time of 16.3 days for the iPhone 16, lower than the 28.5 days for the iPhone 15.

The report also mentioned that in the iPhone 16 series, the delivery time for the Pro and Pro Max models is significantly shorter than in previous cycles. As of Tuesday, in the USA, the delivery time for the iPhone 16 Pro Max was 25.5 days, 18 days shorter than the previous iPhone 15 Pro Max. The delivery time for the iPhone 16 Pro was 18.5 days, lower than the estimated 21.5 days from last Friday.

Morgan Stanley analysts led by Erik Woodring commented on the delivery time data in the report.

"Although there has been some improvement in supply, and we have heard positive rumors about the demand for the iPhone 16, we remain more cautious in interpreting these data points."

While the delivery time has shortened, Morgan Stanley also points out that when predicting the entire sales cycle, the predictive power of these early data points is not strong.

"Overall, these data points have a more negative impact on the iPhone 16 cycle than positive, although their predictive ability for the entire cycle remains small."

The report states that the delivery time trajectory of the iPhone 16 is very similar to past cycles, with the delivery time of the iPhone 16 peaking seven days after ordering, similar to over six previous iPhone cycles.

After the report was released, Apple's stock price rebounded on Tuesday this week, but fell on Wednesday. At the opening, it hit a daily low, dropping around 1.2%. The morning market decline narrowed, approaching parity, while the midday decline expanded to over 1%. The decline narrowed again by the close.

Before the release of the aforementioned report by Morgan Stanley, some Wall Street institutions had already issued warnings about the demand issues reflected in the initial order data for the iPhone 16.

An article on Wall Street News last Monday mentioned that the "prophet" of Apple, Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities, estimated that the iPhone 16 series had a pre-order sales volume of about 37 million units in the first weekend, a decrease of about 12.7% compared to the sales of the iPhone 15 series last year. The key issue lies in the lower-than-expected sales of the iPhone 16 Pro series.

Guo Mingkho stated that one of the key factors leading to the decline in demand for the iPhone 16 series is that the major selling point Apple Intelligence was not released with the iPhone 16. In addition, the intense competition in the Chinese market continues to impact the demand for iPhones.

Barclays analysts also mentioned the impact of Apple Intelligence, stating that the Chinese version of Apple Intelligence will not be launched until 2025, which may weaken people's early enthusiasm for the iPhone 16.

Barclays estimates that the total number of pre-orders in the days leading up to the launch of the iPhone 16 has decreased year-on-year, with a lower proportion for the Pro models. The sales of the Pro models have decreased by double digits year-on-year, while the sales of the base and Plus models have recorded growth compared to the same period last year.

Bank of America analysts in the United States stated that the delivery time for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max models has been slightly extended, but on average, it has decreased compared to the pre-order period at this stage last year. At the same time, Bank of America pointed out that the extension of the delivery date can reflect the demand for the iPhone, but other factors such as supply, inventory, distribution, and pricing may also affect the delivery date.

A recent report by Citibank analysts indicated that as of last Friday, September 20, the average delivery time for the basic model of the iPhone 16 worldwide, including the United States, increased by one week compared to tracking data from a week ago. In the United States, United Kingdom, and India, the delivery time for the iPhone 16 Pro model increased by 3 to 7 days, decreased by about 12 days in China. The delivery time for the Pro Max model remained unchanged in the United States and the United Kingdom, increased in India, and decreased in China.

Citibank's report stated that compared to the iPhone 15, except in the Chinese market, the delivery time for the basic model of the iPhone 16 is roughly the same, while that of the Pro model has been shortened. However, Citibank noted that the overall supply chain situation of the entire iPhone 16 series has improved this year, believing that the Apple Intelligence feature may impact the sales cycle and seasonality of the iPhone 16 series.

Editor/Lambor