On the eve of the National Day holiday, a number of heavyweight policies were introduced simultaneously, bringing many bullish signals to the market.

On Tuesday, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, took the lead in announcing three important policies at a press conference, involving comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts for existing mortgages, and a 800 billion special funding for the stock market. As a result, the three major Hong Kong stock indices hit new highs during the day, with the Hang Seng Tech Index leading with a 5% increase, and the Hang Seng Index rising by 3.8% to nearly 19,000 points.

On Wednesday, the offshore Renminbi exchange rate rose above the "7.0" benchmark first; and the central bank took the lead in implementing interest rate cuts, with the MLF bid rate reduced by 30 basis points to a minimum bid rate of 1.90%; and released a series of heavyweight policies including the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Implementing the Strategy of Giving Priority to Employment to Promote High-Quality and Full Employment".

At the same time, foreign investors also massively bought Chinese assets under the influence of optimistic factors. A report from the institutional brokerage department of Goldman Sachs showed that the Chinese stock market recorded the largest single-day net purchase since March 2021 on Tuesday, reaching the second highest level in the past decade. The buying pressure was almost entirely dominated by investors increasing their long positions. In addition, trading volume in Hong Kong stocks was nearly 1.4 times above the 20-day average, with buying focused on the financial, consumer goods, and ETF sectors.

It is worth noting that with the approaching of the National Day holiday, the Hong Kong stock market will be open on October 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th. By observing the performance of the Hong Kong stock market after the National Day from 2014 to 2023, there is a potential 70% chance of an increase.$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$On the other hand, from$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$From the performance perspective, the chances of increase from 2015 to 2023 are close to 80%.

In addition, Soochow Securities pointed out that from a technical perspective, it seems that the series of indices in the Hong Kong market have broken out from triple or quadruple bottoms. By observing factors such as transaction amount, profit (enterprise income and earnings) growth rate, combined with the US dollar entering an interest rate cut cycle and many other indicators, the Hong Kong stock market index may have already bottomed out.

For investors who are bullish on the future trend of the Hong Kong stock market, they can also invest through ETFs in the Hong Kong market, including:$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$,$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index Daily (2X) Leveraged Product (07226.HK)$,$CSOP Hang Seng Index Daily (2x) Leveraged Product (07200.HK)$,$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF (02828.HK)$etc.

With the support of the policy stimulus package, combined with the holiday effect, Hong Kong stock investors can also focus on related holiday entertainment concept stocks.

How to grasp holiday entertainment concept stocks in the Hong Kong stock market?

According to the big data from the Civil Aviation Information Network's Aviation Travel Horizon, the National Day Golden Week tourism market remains hot this year. As of September 24th, the domestic flight ticket bookings for the National Day holiday period (September 30th - October 7th) exceeded 7.3 million, with the daily average booking volume during the holiday period increasing by about 17% compared to the same period last year, and approximately 14% compared to 2019.

According to the "2024 National Day Travel Forecast Report" released by Ctrip, this year's National Day holiday travel boom has fully returned, especially with a significant increase in demand for long-distance and outbound travel. The visa processing volume on the Ctrip platform increased by 70% compared to last year. Data from Tuniu also shows that domestic long-haul travel accounts for 52% of total trips, while outbound travel accounts for 28%.

In addition, Shanghai recently announced that it will allocate 0.5 billion yuan to distribute consumer vouchers, with the first batch available for application this Saturday (September 28), covering dining, lodging, movies, and sports sectors. It is worth looking forward to the efforts of cultural tourism nationwide during the National Day holiday!

• GTJA: National Day presale of aviation accelerates, suggesting options for a decline in oil prices; National Day box office movies are gearing up, pay attention to media and theater stocks.

National Day holiday presales continue to accelerate, with OTA flight search volume increasing by 10% year-on-year, and presale volume continues to rise. The aviation supply and demand are recovering, with the off-peak season demand expected to remain resilient, and international additional flights will continue to drive the recovery of supply and demand. With the recovery of supply and demand, an increase in profit center is expected. Recent expectations continue to decline, suggested options for declining oil prices, and recommended counter-cyclical positioning in the off-peak season.

Recommendations: $AIR CHINA (00753.HK)$,$CHINA EAST AIR (00670.HK)$,$CHINA SOUTH AIR (01055.HK)$,$CATHAY PAC AIR (00293.HK)$,$BEIJING AIRPORT (00694.HK)$Wait for aviation airport stocks. Meanwhile, market analysis suggests that attention can also be paid$CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK)$,$MEILAN AIRPORT (00357.HK)$Waiting for duty-free concept stocks.

During the National Day holidays, there are usually many top and blockbuster movies choosing to premiere during this period. Typically, National Day box office accounts for over 5% of the entire year. Looking at individual box office records, there have been movies with over 1 billion yuan in box office earnings during the National Day holiday from 2015 to the present. Therefore, it is also possible for the National Day holiday period to produce several high-grossing films.

In 2024, there are many scheduled films for the National Day holiday period, which are expected to boost the market recovery. Taking into account the films scheduled for September 27th to October 1st, there are already over 10 films scheduled for the National Day holiday period. Recommended targets include$MAOYAN ENT (01896.HK)$,$ALI PICTURES (01060.HK)$Hold on to theater stocks.

• Guoyuan International: Tourism travel shows strong resilience, and National Day travel is expected to reach a new high.

Guoyuan International pointed out that overall tourism travel shows strong resilience, and experiential consumption demands such as concerts, music festivals, cultural tourism, remain strong, which is bullish.$TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$,$TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780.HK)$,$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$Waiting for OTA platforms; at the same time,$HWORLD-S (01179.HK)$The domestic hotel industry will also benefit.

• Shanghai Securities: Catering companies prepare for the National Day golden week, seizing the holiday economic consumption node.

Shanghai Securities pointed out that according to the National Bureau of Statistics data, from January to August, catering revenue was 3499.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%; the growth rate in the same period last year was 19.4%. At the same time, during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday period in 2024, catering consumption continues the hot trend, and it is expected that the upcoming National Day holiday will be a significant node in the annual sales of catering enterprises. Bullish on leading catering enterprises innovating themselves to cope with the important trend of dining consumption becoming more affordable and cost-effective, actively seizing the holiday economy.

Market analysis suggests focusing on:$XIABUXIABU (00520.HK)$,$JIUMAOJIU (09922.HK)$,$HAIDILAO (06862.HK)$,$YUM CHINA (09987.HK)$,$DPC DASH (01405.HK)$,$NAYUKI (02150.HK)$,$CHABAIDAO (02555.HK)$,$CAFE DE CORAL H (00341.HK)$Looking into dining stocks.

• Macau Tourism Bureau: If the weather is good during the National Day holiday, daily average tourists may exceed 0.1 million people.

On September 25, the Macau Tourism Bureau revealed that if the weather is good during the National Day holiday, daily average tourists may exceed 0.1 million people. In August, the number of visitors to Macau exceeded 3.65 million, hitting a new record for a single month, an increase of nearly ten percent compared to the same period in 2019.

Market analysis suggests that investors can pay attention to:$MGM CHINA (02282.HK)$,$SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK)$,$WYNN MACAU (01128.HK)$,$SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK)$,$GALAXY ENT (00027.HK)$Wait for Macau hotel stocks.

Editor/ping