Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
Author: Rousseau

Wall Street investment banking giant Morgan Stanley has downgraded the overall rating of the entire US auto industry to "in line with the large cap" rating, after previously widely rated the industry as having "strong investment appeal". When segmented, different auto companies fall within different rating ranges, among them still maintaining the "shareholding" rating given by Morgan Stanley, the rising star of the US electric car industry. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ As for macro data, the US Department of Commerce showed that the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in July recorded an increase of 1%, the largest increase since January 2023. It was estimated to rise by 0.4% and the previous value was 0%. Compared with June, this was a strong rebound, and the sales data for June was revised to a decrease of 0.2%. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected sales to increase by 0.3%.$Ferrari (RACE.US)$still maintains the "shareholding" rating given by Morgan Stanley, the rising star of the US electric car industry $Lucid Group (LCID.US)$ Ranked as 'shareholding' which is a negative rating.

The Morgan Stanley research team led by analyst Adam Jonas warns in the report: 'From a high-level perspective, our overall downgrade of the USA auto industry is collectively driven by international, domestic, and strategic factors. We believe that investors may not fully realize these factors.'

Morgan Stanley now believes that the USA auto inventory is on the rise, and many American families still cannot afford cars. In addition, for subprime consumers, credit losses and loan delinquencies continue to rise. Jonas and his team also emphasize that the economic growth engine in Asia has reversed, which is an unfavorable sign for the auto industry.

Jonas and his team also state that the optimistic sentiment surrounding US auto stocks as drivers and beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence wave is being offset by concerns about extensive capital commitments needed for large-scale artificial intelligence development, AI infrastructure, and establishing large-scale AI cloud computing/datacenter enterprises. Some institutional investors seem to believe that the previous investments in AI far exceed the profit scale in the near to mid-term.

As part of the reset of the USA auto industry, Morgan Stanley downgraded many auto manufacturers previously favored by the bank and Wall Street in this latest research report, such as$Ford Motor (F.US)$from 'shareholding' downgraded to 'on par with large cap', $General Motors (GM.US)$ 从“增持”下调至“与大盘持平”，将美国电动汽车新势力$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$从“增持”下调至“与大盘持平”，将$Phinia (PHIN.US)$Rating downgraded from "hold" to "neutral with the large cap", $Magna International (MGA.US)$ downgraded from "hold" to "neutral with the large cap".

摩根士丹利对于美国汽车零售业务则持更为乐观的态度，并将 $Group 1 Automotive (GPI.US)$and$Lear (LEA.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Penske Automotive (PAG.US)$ and$AutoNation (AN.US)$The rating has been upgraded to 'shareholding'. The main view of the Morgan Stanley research team is that with the foreseeable trend of decreasing car loan payments, the franchise dealers' multiple expansions can continue.

In addition, this Wall Street investment bank believes there are significant profit opportunities in the automotive industry, and Morgan Stanley continues to maintain its rating for Tesla, Ferrari, $CarMax (KMX.US)$the "shareholding" rating, as well as the upgraded rating to shareholding rating, and will continue to include Tesla as the "preferred auto stock" of the institution. Meanwhile, maintain$Adient (ADNT.US)$and$Aptiv PLC (APTV.US)$N/A.$QuantumScape (QS.US)$and Lucid Group's "shareholding" which is the most negative rating.

Morgan Stanley: Despite the overall downgrade of the entire American automotive industry, they are still bullish on the trend of Tesla's stock price.

With the title of "super bullish on Tesla", the Wall Street giant Morgan Stanley has been a staunch bull on Tesla for a long time. The firm maintains a bullish rating for Tesla, with a target price as high as $310. Comparatively, Tesla recently rebounded significantly and closed at $254.27 on Tuesday after experiencing a sharp rebound in Robotaxi since September. Up nearly 20% up to now in September.

Regarding Tesla's upcoming Robotaxi event, Morgan Stanley believes it will be a strong catalyst to continue driving Tesla's stock price higher. Undoubtedly, if Tesla can prove they are progressing as planned or accelerating the development of Tesla's fully automatic driving system, based on massive artificial intelligence training/inference computing resources in Tesla's FSD system, and when Robotaxi will be fully deployed in the market to generate revenue for Tesla, then this Robotaxi unveiling event could indeed be a real breakthrough.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$CEO Huang Renxun recently praised Tesla's FSD built on AI supercomputing without hesitation during a media interview. Tesla's FSD is based on the Dojo supercomputer chip and high-performance AI GPU from Nvidia (mainly H100 and H200, Musk mentioned future procurement of Blackwell architecture AI GPU), relying on these powerful hardware systems to support the massive training/inference computational requirements of Tesla FSD. Many technology giants, including Huang Renxun, have publicly stated that Tesla's FSD is currently the most advanced advanced driving assistance system, which can fully achieve hands-free driving in most cases, completely liberating human hands.

The long-awaited Tesla self-driving robot taxi (Robotaxi) in the market will be based on the upgraded latest FSD full autonomous driving technology. Tesla envisions these autonomous vehicles being able to handle various complex transportation tasks without human intervention, including large-scale passenger transport. These vehicles will be integrated into Tesla's broader artificial intelligence and electric vehicle strategies. However, global deployment still requires comprehensive approval from regulatory authorities.

Cathie Wood's investment institution Ark has significantly increased confidence in Tesla's ability to launch a robotaxi network in the next five years. The institution believes that each Tesla vehicle will become a cash flow generator driven by artificial intelligence in the future, with Tesla's business model expected to shift from one-time car sales to recurring revenue.

The outlook for Tesla's energy storage business is also a key logic behind Morgan Stanley's bullish view on Tesla's stock price. The Morgan Stanley analysis team stated that Tesla's most attractive aspect to investors in the future may be Tesla's solar and energy storage business benefiting from the global AI wave. So far this year, the two strongest performing categories in the utility sector of the U.S. stock market have been electric power stocks and renewable energy stocks. The main logic behind this lies in these two subcategories being recognized as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the unprecedented AI fervor for global corporate layouts, considering the exponential expansion of high-energy-consuming AI data centers due to the fierce demand for AI chips. The surge in construction and establishment cannot be separated from the massive electricity supply foundation, which is where the market mainstream view of "AI being powered by electricity" originates.

The unparalleled demand for renewable energy such as solar energy in global data centers is mainly because under the trend of global decarbonization, solar energy and other renewable energy sources may be the most important power generation source and even have no substitute. The Tesla energy storage equipment for long-term storage of large-scale solar energy will undoubtedly play a role similar to that of a "seller of shovels" in this market.

Editor/Jeffy