According to the Wise Finance APP, Huafu Securities released research reports stating that the total demand of the express delivery industry in 2024 exceeds expectations, with the cumulative parcel volume exceeding one hundred billion in August. The industry is gradually entering the peak season, with the year-on-year decrease in ASP gradually narrowing. The expectation of industry price increase is rising, with a long-term trend of capital expenditure contraction on the supply side. The regulatory authority has a firm attitude towards curbing vicious price wars, and continues to be optimistic about the marginal recovery of franchised express delivery in 2024. Key recommendations include: ZTO Express (02057): Adjusted net profit of 2.81 billion yuan in 24Q2, with a strategic shift towards high-quality parcels, maintaining good scale and continuous profit improvement. Yunda Holding (002120.SZ): 24Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by +23.2% year-on-year, with network improvement and continuous profit recovery. YTO Express Group (600233.SH): Leading express delivery company, deeply cultivating the express delivery business, continuously realizing comprehensive service capabilities and product pricing capabilities. Focus on: STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ) and others.

Event:

The State Post Bureau disclosed the industry business data for August 2024, and A-share express delivery companies disclosed their business data for August 24.

Huafu Securities' main points are as follows:

Commercial flow: The year-on-year growth of social retail remains steady, while online retail sales remain nearly flat year-on-year.

In August 2024, the total domestic social retail sales amounted to 3.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +2.1%; the physical commodity online retail sales were 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +0.9%; the penetration rate of physical commodity online shopping was 26.0%, a year-on-year decrease of -0.3 percentage points, and a month-on-month decrease of -1.8 percentage points.

Volume: From January to August 2024, the total number of express deliveries was 10.88 billion pieces, exceeding one hundred billion pieces.

In August 2024, the express business volume reached 14.38 billion pieces, an increase of 19.5% year-on-year (new calculation method). From January to August 2024, the volume of express deliveries reached 108.8 billion pieces, an increase of 22.5% year-on-year. The growth rate of express deliveries still maintains a moderate growth. Looking at different categories, cross-regional deliveries increased by 30.5%; looking at different regions, express deliveries in the eastern region increased by 23.7% year-on-year.

Price: In August, ASP decreased year-on-year, with the industry-wide ASP decreasing by 10.8% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed.

In August 2024, the national average unit price of express delivery was 7.93 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.96 yuan (-10.8%). In August 2024, the average unit prices of express delivery in the eastern, central, and western regions were 8.23, 6.43, and 8.64 yuan respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 9.0%, 12.1%, and 21.1% respectively. Prices in the eastern, central, and western regions all decreased year-on-year.

Competitive Landscape: Shunfeng and YTO Express increased their market share.

In August 2024, Shunfeng, Yunda, Sto Express, and YTO Express achieved express delivery volumes of 1.04, 1.97, 1.94, and 2.26 billion pieces respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +8.6%, +11.4%, +21.5%, and +20.7% respectively. Shunfeng, Yunda, Sto Express, and YTO Express accounted for 7.3%, 13.7%, 13.5%, and 15.7% of the market share of express delivery volumes. In August 2024, Shunfeng, Yunda, Sto Express, and YTO Express achieved single ticket revenues of 15.67, 1.99, 2.00, and 2.14 yuan respectively, with year-on-year decreases of -5.3%, -8.3%, -4.8%, and -7.1% respectively.

Risk warning:

Economic downturn, slower growth in express delivery volume than expected, and intensified industry competition.