U.S. stock market outlook: the three major futures indexes fell slightly, the pre-market rise of china concept stocks paused, Alibaba and pdd holdings dropped by nearly 3%; goldman sachs' call continues! Consensus calls for the U.S. stock market to contin

Futu News · Sep 25 20:20

热点要闻

周三盘前，三大股指期货小幅下挫

大型科技股盘前涨跌互现。

热门中概股盘前结束连涨势头，携程网跌近7%，小鹏汽车、B站跌超5%，京东跌超4%，阿里、拼多多、百度跌近3%。

黄仁勋提前完成英伟达减持，套现超过7亿美元

减持计划中黄仁勋计划在2025年第一季度末之前出售至多600万股 $英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ 股票，在经历了近三个月的减持之后，黄仁勋完成了其预先安排的股份减持计划，并从中套现超过7亿美元（约合人民币49.22亿元）；在完成减持后，黄仁勋现在直接持有7540万股英伟达股票，另外通过不同的信托和合伙企业持有7.86亿股英伟达股票。

英伟达盘前微涨0.32%。

Robotaxi呼之欲出+乐观Q3交付预期，特斯拉“拉升浪”又来了?

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$ 万众瞩目的机器人出租车(Robotaxi)将于10月初迎来首次亮相，叠加备受期待的第三季度销售数据，该股股价节节攀升，在周一上涨5%后，周二接连上涨近2%。此外，机构近日在看涨报告中纷纷看好在中国市场的Q3交付数据，称有望录得在中国史上最佳季度表现。

英特尔推出新一代AI芯片Xeon 6与Gaudi 3，挑战英伟达霸主地位

$英特尔 (INTC.US)$ 正式推出了全新的 Xeon6处理器和 Gaudi3AI 加速器，这两款产品旨在增强公司在人工智能(AI)和高性能计算(HPC)领域的竞争力，有可能挑战 $英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ 在该领域的主导地位。

Meta Connect 2024来袭

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$ 为期两天的Meta Connect 2024会议将于 9 月 25 日至 26 日举行，该公司可能将公布首个AR眼镜，以及关于人工智能领域的最新进展和Meta VR/AR头显最新进展。

巴菲特再度减持美国银行股票，持股比例降至10.5%

$伯克希尔-B (BRK.B.US)$ 又出售了8.63亿美元的 $美国银行 (BAC.US)$ 股票，将其持股比例降至更接近10%的监管门槛。若持股比例不超过10%，则无需尽快披露交易情况，通常可能需要等待数周，在每个季度报告中披露。

力压亚马逊年内涨34%！拉美电商平台MercadoLibre获九成分析师力荐

全球最大的电子商务公司之一、拉美电商平台 $MercadoLibre (MELI.US)$ 今年以来已上涨34%，超过了同期 $亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$ 的27%和$标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$的20%，表现喜人。根据FactSet的数据，约90%华尔街分析师将该股评为“买入”，平均目标价为2268美元，相比本周交易价上涨约8%。目前未有卖出评级。

名创优品盘前反弹3%，H股今日大幅收涨8%

港股 $名创优品 (09896.HK)$ 大幅上涨8%，带动 $名创优品 (MNSO.US)$美股盘前反弹近3%。国信证券最新报告指，名创优品收购$永辉超市 (601933.SH)$29.4%股权，线下零售巨头协同发展。中长期来看，对于永辉的收购有望赋能名创主业国内业务门店开店发展，扩大公司在线下零售影响力，而永辉自身的调改也在有序推进，未来若重回增长后也将为公司带来增长增量。

网易盘前跌超1%，机构预计第三季度游戏收入增速或放缓

汇丰发表研究报告指，考虑《逆水寒》手游及《蛋仔派对》比较基数较高，预期 $网易 (NTES.US)$ 的游戏收入或会在第三季度按年录得放缓，并于第四季度出现复苏，料《永劫无间》手游、《魔兽世界》、《Once Human》为网易带来新贡献。

爱奇艺称微短剧对会员彻底免费

9月25日， $爱奇艺 (IQ.US)$ CEO龚宇在悦享会上透露，爱奇艺今日上线短剧场和微剧场，他称爱奇艺的短剧不等于切短的低成本网剧，微剧不等于低质的收费微短剧。与此同时商业模式也在变，目前爱奇艺对微短剧设计的商业模式是70%以上的收入分配给到内容出品方，对会员彻底免费。

何小鹏：小鹏P7+10月见

$小鹏汽车 (XPEV.US)$ CEO何小鹏在社交媒体上透露，小鹏P7+将在10月亮相。在小鹏的定义中，小鹏P7+是全球首款AI汽车。

全球宏观

美联储下一步将何去何从? 交易员加入11月降息“豪赌”

周二公布的美国消费者信心数据弱于预期后，投资者更倾向于在11月7日的决议中再次直接降息50个基点。掉期交易员目前预计，美联储今年剩余两次降息总幅度约为75个基点，第二次降息将在12月18日举行，这意味着其中一次会议将降息50个基点。

美联储大幅降息，美债却成了最大输家

美联储上周“意外”降息50个基点，美股市场一片“欢腾”。但彭博宏观策略师Simon White认为，这一降息决定可能会导致美国国债市场面临更大的价格和流动性风险，成为最大的输家。Simon White认为，由于通胀风险依旧存在，过快的降息可能加剧长债的期限溢价，导致收益率曲线呈现熊市陡峭化的特征，这可能成为一种常态。

高盛看涨声不断！一致呼吁大选结束后美股将继续走高

高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin表示，一旦美国总统大选结果确定，美股继续走高的道路是明确的。他表示，预计一年后标普500指数将在6000点附近交易。这一预测意味着标普500指数将较周二收盘点位上涨约5%，而该指数今年以来已累计上涨约20%。

大摩投资管理：风向转变，或有利于美国以外的资产

据彭博，摩根士丹利投资管理的Jitania Kandhari称，美联储降息和美元走低，为新兴市场股市跑赢美股打开大门。“利好美元的经济增长和利率等因素目前见顶，开始有利于美国以外的市场。截至9月23日，MSCI新兴市场指数今年迄今已上涨11%，连续第六年落后于上涨20%的标普500指数。

印度股市屡创新高，买入呼声却日渐减弱

截至周二，印度NSE Nifty 200指数中普遍给出买入评级的股票数量总计为61支，为至少十年来最低。企业盈利前景变得更加黯淡，使得分析师对推动印度股市长达数年上涨的一些股票能否进一步走高持怀疑态度。“许多股票现在已经变得贵得离谱，”DSP Mutual Fund策略师Sahil Kapoor说。Nifty 200指数的12个月远期市盈率目前约为24倍，高于过去10年约19倍的平均水平。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

22:00：美国8月季调后新屋销售年化总数(万户)。

22:30：美国截至9月20日当周EIA原油库存变动(万桶)。

次日凌晨04:00：美联储理事库格勒就经济前景发表讲话。

编辑/emily

Hot news

Before the Wednesday trading session, the three major equity index futures edged down slightly.

Large technology stocks showed mixed gains and losses in pre-market trading.

China concept stocks, which were popular in pre-market trading, ended their consecutive gains streak. Trip.com fell by nearly 7%, Xpeng and Bilibili dropped by over 5%, JD.com dropped by over 4%, while Alibaba, PDD Holdings, and Baidu fell by nearly 3%.

Huang Renxun completed the shareholding reduction of Nvidia ahead of schedule, cashing out over $0.7 billion.

As part of the shareholding reduction plan, Huang Renxun plans to sell up to 6 million shares before the end of the first quarter of 2025. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ After nearly three months of shareholding reduction, Huang Renxun completed his pre-arranged share reduction plan and cashed out over $0.7 billion (approximately RMB 4.922 billion). Following the reduction, Huang Renxun now directly holds 75.4 million shares of Nvidia, and additionally holds 0.786 billion shares of Nvidia through various trusts and partnerships.

Nvidia rose slightly by 0.32% in pre-market trading.

Is the highly anticipated Robotaxi about to emerge, coupled with optimistic Q3 delivery expectations, will Tesla's 'surge wave' come again?

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ The much-anticipated Robotaxi will make its first appearance in early October, combined with the eagerly awaited Q3 sales data. The stock price has been steadily rising, with a 5% increase on Monday followed by nearly 2% consecutive gains on Tuesday. In addition, institutions have recently been bullish in reports, showing confidence in the Q3 delivery data in the Chinese market, expecting to achieve the best quarterly performance in Chinese history.

Intel launches the new generation AI chips Xeon 6 and Gaudi 3, challenging Nvidia's dominant position.

$Intel (INTC.US)$ Formally launching the all-new Xeon6 processor and Gaudi3AI accelerator, these two products aim to enhance the company's competitiveness in the fields of artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC), potentially challenging Nvidia's dominant position. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Leading position in the field.

Meta Connect 2024 is coming.

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$ The two-day Meta Connect 2024 conference will be held on September 25th to 26th, where the company may announce its first AR glasses, as well as the latest developments in the field of artificial intelligence and updates on Meta VR/AR headsets.

Buffett once again reduced his holdings of Bank of America stocks, with the shareholding ratio dropping to 10.5%.

$Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$ Another $0.863 billion has been sold off. $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ Stocks, reducing their shareholding to closer to the 10% regulatory threshold. If the shareholding does not exceed 10%, there is no need to disclose the trading situation quickly, usually may need to wait for several weeks, and disclose it in the quarterly report.

Surpassing Amazon by 34% this year! Latin American e-commerce platform MercadoLibre highly recommended by 90% of analysts.

One of the largest global e-commerce companies, Latin American e-commerce platform $MercadoLibre (MELI.US)$ has risen by 34% this year, exceeding the 27% of the same period $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ .$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Up 20%, with impressive performance. According to FactSet's data, about 90% of Wall Street analysts rate the stock as a "buy," with an average target price of $2268, an increase of approximately 8% from this week's trading price. There are currently no sell ratings.

Miniso rebounded by 3% in pre-market trading, with H shares closing sharply up by 8% today.

Hong Kong stocks $MNSO (09896.HK)$ surged 8%, driving $MINISO (MNSO.US)$Pre-market trading in the U.S. rebounded nearly 3%. According to the latest report from Guosen Securities, Miniso's acquisition $Yonghui Superstores (601933.SH)$29.4%股权，线下零售巨头协同发展。中长期来看，对于永辉的收购有望赋能名创主业国内业务门店开店发展，扩大公司在线下零售影响力，而永辉自身的调改也在有序推进，未来若重回增长后也将为公司带来增长增量。

网易盘前跌超1%，机构预计第三季度游戏收入增速或放缓

汇丰发表研究报告指，考虑《逆水寒》手游及《蛋仔派对》比较基数较高，预期 $NetEase (NTES.US)$ 的游戏收入或会在第三季度按年录得放缓，并于第四季度出现复苏，料《永劫无间》手游、《魔兽世界》、《Once Human》为网易带来新贡献。

Iqiyi announced that micro-dramas are completely free for members.

9月25日， $iQIYI (IQ.US)$ CEO Gong Yu revealed at the Joy Conference that iQiyi has launched Short Drama Theater and Micro Drama Theater today. He mentioned that iQiyi's short dramas are not just shortened low-cost web dramas, and micro dramas are not low-quality paid micro-short dramas. At the same time, the business model is also changing. Currently, iQiyi's business model for micro-short dramas distributes over 70% of the revenue to the content producers, and membership is completely free.

He Xiaopeng: Xiaopeng P7+ will debut in October.

$XPeng (XPEV.US)$ CEO He Xiaopeng revealed on social media that Xpeng P7+ will debut in October. In Xpeng's definition, Xpeng P7+ is the world's first AI car.

Global macro

What will be the next move for the Federal Reserve? Traders are joining the November rate cut "gamble".

After the US consumer confidence data announced on Tuesday was weaker than expected, investors are more inclined to directly cut interest rates by 50 basis points again in the decision on November 7th. Derivative traders are currently expecting that the remaining two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year will total about 75 basis points, with the second rate cut scheduled for December 18th, meaning one of the meetings will involve a 50 basis point cut.

While the Federal Reserve made significant interest rate cuts, US bonds turned out to be the biggest losers.

Last week, the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points, causing a "celebration" in the US stock market. However, Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White believes that this rate cut decision may lead to greater price and liquidity risks in the US Treasury market, making it the biggest loser. White believes that due to persistent inflation risks, rapid rate cuts may exacerbate long bond term premiums, leading to a steepening yield curve, which may become a norm.

Goldman Sachs has been consistently bullish! There are unanimous calls for US stocks to continue rising after the election.

Goldman Sachs' Chief US Stock Strategist David Kostin believes that once the results of the US presidential election are confirmed, the path for US stocks to continue rising is clear. He expects the S&P 500 index to trade around 6000 points in a year. This forecast implies a 5% increase from Tuesday's closing level, while the index has already accumulated about a 20% increase this year.

JPMorgan Asset Management: Shift in winds may favor assets outside the USA.

According to Bloomberg, Jitania Kandhari of Morgan Stanley Investment Management stated that the Federal Reserve rate cut and a weaker US dollar have paved the way for emerging market stocks to outperform US stocks. "Bullish factors for the US dollar's economic growth and interest rates are currently peaking, beginning to favor markets outside the USA. As of September 23, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has risen 11% year-to-date, lagging behind the S&P 500 index, which has risen 20%, for the sixth consecutive year.

Indian stock market keeps hitting new highs, but the buy calls are diminishing.

As of Tuesday, the number of stocks in the Indian NSE Nifty 200 index with buy ratings has totaled 61, the lowest in at least a decade. Dimmer corporate profit prospects have made analysts skeptical about whether some of the stocks that have been driving the Indian stock market's multi-year advance can continue to rise further. "Many stocks have now become unreasonably expensive," said Sahil Kapoor, a strategist at DSP Mutual Fund. The 12-month forward P/E ratio of the Nifty 200 index is currently around 24 times, higher than the average level of about 19 times over the past 10 years.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

22:00: The seasonally adjusted annual total of new home sales in the USA for August (in 10,000 households).

22:30: Weekly EIA crude oil inventory changes in the USA as of September 20 (in 10,000 barrels).

04:00 the next day: Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugle will speak on economic outlook.

Editor/Emily

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

美股前瞻 | 三大期指小幅下挫，热门中概股盘前涨势暂歇，阿里、拼多多跌近3%；高盛看涨声不断！一致呼吁大选结束后美股将继续走高