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英伟达利空愁云渐散!黄仁勋卖股告一段落、大摩研报又注入强心针,新一轮上涨或已开启?

Nvidia's bearish clouds are gradually dispersing! Huang Renxun's stock sale has come to an end, and the research reports from Morgan Stanley have injected another shot in the arm. Is a new round of increase already underway?

Futu News ·  Sep 25 18:57

Overnight, a piece of news stimulated the market. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ It surged straight up, successfully reclaiming the $120 mark.

On the news front, according to regulatory filings, after nearly three months of shareholding reduction, Huang Renxun finally completed his pre-arranged share sale plan, cashing out over 0.7 billion US dollars.

Huang's current round of Nvidia stock sale plan is valid until March 2025, but he has completed all planned sales six months before the expiration date.

According to the latest regulatory filings, from June 13 to September 12, Huang Renxun conducted share sale operations for 50 trading days, reducing 0.12 million shares each time. After the last share sale on September 12, Huang Renxun has reached the upper limit of 6 million shares reduction quota months ahead of schedule.

This year, nvidia has been a 'cash cow', being referred to as 'buy and earn'. Its stock price surged by nearly 240% last year, with an increase of over 170% this year, reaching a market cap exceeding 3 trillion US dollars, even surpassing Microsoft and Apple to become the company with the highest market cap in the world.

After hitting a historical high in late June, nvidia's stock price entered a 'pullback' mode, retracing by over 20% at one point. Some analysts believe that Huang Renxun's timing for cashing out was perfect, described as 'selling at the right moment'.

On the options chain, overnight bulls dominate the block orders, with the highest volume being the call option with a strike price of $120 that expires this Friday, with 0.272 million contracts traded and an open interest of 0.117 million contracts, experiencing an almost 1.9 times increase in the premium.

In fact, large-scale insider selling typically triggers market concerns, as some investors may believe that company executives have access to undisclosed information or speculate that the stock price has peaked, leading to unnecessary market volatility.

From the market's response, Huang Renxun's early completion of the scheduled shareholding plan effectively alleviated concerns of some investors. The market generally believes that this news has eased potential selling pressure, prompting investors to regain confidence in Nvidia stocks and driving a strong rebound in the stock price.

Rave reviews! Wall Street major banks still bullish on Nvidia's prospects.

It is worth noting that apart from Huang Renxun completing the shareholding plan overnight, a research report from Morgan Stanley has also injected confidence into the market.

According to Morgan Stanley's latest report, AI chip giant Nvidia's latest Blackwell architecture GPU has begun mass production, and it is expected to generate $10 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter of this year. Morgan Stanley points out,

With the Blackwell GPU entering mass production, the demand from major clients will bring significant revenue growth momentum for Nvidia, while smaller clients' demand for the H200 architecture is also increasing. It is estimated that the fourth quarter shipment volume of Blackwell chips this year could reach 450,000 units, with the potential to generate over $10 billion in revenue.

Morgan Stanley admits that Nvidia is addressing several "technical challenges" faced by the GB200 server cabinet, but these are common debugging processes before the launch of new products. However, the demand for H200 remains very healthy, primarily driven by sovereign AI projects and the continuous capacity expansion of smaller cloud service providers.

Tianfeng Securities issued a report, indicating that Nvidia's Blackwell series is expected to have a large volume of shipments in the fourth quarter. In order to achieve better yield in the third quarter, the mask change of the Blackwell series has been completed, and Nvidia is expected to ship a billion-dollar level Blackwell series in the fourth quarter, with the bank believing it could ship billions of dollars worth.

Beth Kindig, Chief Technology Analyst at I/O Fund, stated that Nvidia's market cap is expected to more than double. This also means that she sees significant upside potential for the company's stocks.

The analyst anticipates that once Wall Street analysts raise their financial expectations for Nvidia next year, Nvidia's growth trajectory will become more pronounced. For Nvidia, this should mark a 'significant moment', second only to the shipment volume data for Blackwell in 2025.

"What I want to say is that this will be a fireworks display. Absolutely, Blackwell's final fireworks will be launched in the first quarter of next year, accompanied by guidance for the second quarter." She said, "At the beginning of next year, Nvidia will once again achieve brilliance, and we will move towards the goal of 10 trillion dollars."

However, Jefferies Financial pointed out that the United States may implement additional restrictions in the review of semiconductor export control policies in October of this year, which may include a decision to ban Nvidia's H20 chips from being exported to China. It is estimated that if the H20 ban is enforced, Nvidia could lose up to $12 billion in revenue in China, dealing a major blow to the company's sustainability in the Chinese market.

Editor/Somer

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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