In 24Q3, the online performance of white goods channels was good, with growth in air conditioning, refrigeration, and washing machines, among which air conditioners performed the best, achieving growth across all channels.
Futubull Finance APP learned that GF Securities released research reports stating that the growth rate of domestic sales in the household appliance industry is slowing down, while exports maintain a high level of prosperity. In 24Q3, the online performance of white goods channels was good, with growth in air conditioning, refrigeration, and washing machines, among which air conditioners performed the best, achieving growth across all channels. The average prices of refrigerators increased year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, while the average prices of air conditioners and washing machines decreased. The overall domestic sales of small appliances were relatively weak, with relatively good recovery in demand for cleaning appliances such as robotic vacuums and soy milk makers; exports maintained a high level of prosperity, with growth faster than domestic sales. According to All View Cloud Network data, in July 2024, the total channel sales volume and value of televisions were -13.4% and -2.7% respectively year-on-year, indicating a slight decline in demand, with increased average prices and retail sales outperforming retail volume.
Industry Overview: Domestic sales growth is slowing down, while exports maintain a high level of prosperity. (1) Domestic Sales: According to the statistics bureau data, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment from January to August 2024 amounted to 594 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +2.5%. The accumulated retail sales from July to August increased by +0.7% year-on-year, showing a 2.4% slowdown in growth compared to the first half of 2024. (2) Export: In 24Q3, external demand was strong, and household appliance exports maintained rapid growth. According to the customs administration export statistics, in 2024, the cumulative export value of household appliances from January to August was 66.62 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of +14.7%. The cumulative export amount from July to August increased by +14.4% year-on-year, with a 0.4% slowdown in growth compared to the first half of 2024, maintaining a high level of prosperity.
White Goods:
(1) Shipping End: In July and August 2024, exports maintained good growth trends, while domestic demand weakened, with a slowdown in growth. According to Industry Online, in the foreign market, in July and August, air conditioners and refrigerators had year-on-year export growth rates of +37.5%, while washing machines had +14.2%, all displaying fast growth. In the domestic market, in July and August, the year-on-year growth rates for air conditioners were -14.9%, indicating a 20.8% slowdown, while refrigerators and washing machines had growth rates of -14.5% and +7.7% respectively.
(2) Retail End: In 24Q3, the online performance of white goods channels was good, with growth in air conditioning, refrigeration, and washing machines, among which air conditioners performed the best, achieving growth across all channels. According to All View Cloud Network, from week 27 to week 36 of 2024 (July 1 to September 8), online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased year-on-year by +17.3%, +8.0%, and +11.7% respectively, with a comparison increase of +31.9%, +9.4%, and +1.4% from weeks 1 to 26; offline sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased year-on-year by +3.4%, -12.9%, and -10.9% respectively, with a comparison increase of +17.9%, -2.4%, and -5.8% from weeks 1 to 26. Retail end data showed good performance, with online sales channels seeing a year-on-year growth and an accelerated comparison.
(3) Price End: The average prices of refrigerators increased year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, while the average prices of air conditioners and washing machines decreased. According to All View Cloud Network, from week 1 to week 36 of 2024 (January 1 to September 8), the average prices of online air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased year-on-year by -4.9%, +0.6%, and -4.0% respectively; the average prices of offline air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased year-on-year by -2.6%, +2.4%, and -1.2% respectively. It is expected that the leading companies will increase profitability under economies of scale and efficiency improvements.
Small Appliances: Domestic sales: overall weak, with relatively good recovery in demand for cleaning appliances such as sweeping robots and soy milk makers. According to data from All View Cloud Network, among the small appliance products from 24W1-W36 (from the beginning of the year to 2024.9.8), the categories that performed well include sweeping robots, soy milk makers, health pots, electric stew pots, water purifiers, and floor scrubbers, with online cumulative sales increasing by +18.8%, +18.1%, +14.6%, +12.3%, +5.2%, and +5.0% respectively year-on-year. For exports, small domestic appliances maintain a relatively high level of prosperity, with growth faster than domestic sales. It is expected that small appliance companies with a higher proportion of exports will perform well in terms of revenue.
Home Electronics and Projectors: According to data from All View Cloud Network, in July 2024, TV sales volume and revenue across all channels decreased by -13.4% and -2.7% respectively year-on-year, indicating a slight decline in demand but an increase in average prices. Retail revenue outperformed retail sales volume.
Investment Recommendations: White goods show steady growth in performance, with stable ROE and high dividend advantages. The second half of the year is expected to benefit from the policy of encouraging 'replacement to new,' recommending Gree Electric Appliances, Inc. of Zhuhai (000651.SZ), Haier SmartHome (600690.SH,01169), and Hisense Haier (000921.SZ,00921); recommend Beijing Roborock Technology (688169.SH) and TCL Electronics (01070) benefiting from overseas brand expansion.
Risk Factors: Significant increase in raw material prices; significant exchange rate fluctuations; weakening industry demand; deteriorating industry competitive landscape; completion of real estate projects falling short of expectations.
