技术、生态、渠道多维度发力，驱动业绩增长，但来自产业格局与技术趋势的挑战亦可观存在。产品方面，公司立足自研，拥有主要产品全部核心源代码的自主知识产权，契合安全可靠性诉求。生态方面，产品兼容性强，与国际主流数据库的优良适配与低迁移成本有助于扩大市场份额。渠道方面，构建了全面的合作伙伴网络，签约渠道商数量已超过千家。在信创国产化浪潮之下，公司有望进一步提高市占率。Core views:
The company is a pioneer in database localization, and its performance continues to grow rapidly. According to data from CCD Consultants and IDC, the company's product market share in 2019-2023 ranked among the highest among domestic database industry vendors. In 2019-2023, the company's revenue increased from 0.302 billion yuan to 0.794 billion yuan, CAGR reached 27%, and net profit to mother increased from 0.089 billion yuan to 0.296 billion yuan. Performance continued to grow rapidly.
The market size of the database industry is growing steadily, and local demand is becoming increasingly prominent and autonomous and controllable. China's database market reached 52.2 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 7.34% of the global market, and is expected to reach 93 billion yuan in 2028, with a compound growth rate of 12.2%. In terms of the pattern, overseas manufacturers still occupy the mainstream, and there is plenty of room for domestic alternatives. Domestic Internet companies use the advantages of cloud computing to enter the market. Independent manufacturers can provide customers with a variety of choices, and their market share is expected to increase in the future. Since 2022, along with the continuous advancement of innovation in the industry, the demand side has paid more and more attention to autonomy and control, which is beneficial to local players.
Multi-dimensional efforts in technology, ecology, and channels drive performance growth, but challenges stemming from the industrial landscape and technology trends are also considerable. In terms of products, the company is based on self-research and has independent intellectual property rights for all core source codes of major products, which meet safety and reliability requirements. In terms of ecology, strong product compatibility, excellent compatibility with mainstream international databases and low migration costs help expand market share. In terms of channels, a comprehensive partner network has been established, and the number of contracted channel vendors has exceeded 1,000. Under the wave of localization of Xinchuang, the company is expected to further increase its market share.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. As future Xinchuang work progresses further and the company's business expands to more industries, we expect the company's revenue in 2024-2026 to be 0.9 billion yuan, 1.05 billion yuan, and 1.22 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother of 0.35 billion yuan, 0.43 billion yuan, and 0.5 billion yuan respectively, and corresponding EPS of 4.65, 5.59, and 6.62 yuan/share, respectively. Starting from commercialization attributes and industry driving forces, referring to comparable companies, the company was given a reasonable valuation ratio of 65 times PE in 2024, with a reasonable value of 302.52 yuan/share, covering the first time, and giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Risk of loss of core team personnel and R&D progress falling short of expectations; risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations; risk of increased competition in the industry; risk of unsustainable government subsidies and tax incentives.
