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大行评级|瑞银:内险股短期受惠市场正面反应 看好中国平安及中国财险

Major bank rating | UBS Group: Mainland insurance companies benefit from short-term market positive response, bullish on Ping An Insurance and PICC P&C.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Sep 25 13:31  · Ratings

On September 25th, UBS Group released a report pointing out that the People's Bank of China has introduced a series of measures to stimulate the economy, including recently lowering the reserve ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points, releasing 1 trillion yuan of renminbi liquidity; setting up 500 billion yuan of swap facilities for securities firms, fund companies, and insurance companies. The bank believes that if market sentiment continues to improve, mainland insurance companies can benefit from private equity investment returns and valuation increases. As of June this year, 9% to 15% of the investment funds of some listed insurance companies were in listed stocks, with most measured at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL). However, the bank points out that the reserve requirement cut is a double-edged sword for the insurance industry. Although the industry will benefit in the short term from potential boosts in stocks and other stimulus measures (such as real estate), in the long run, interest rates still pose challenges. The bank expects Ping An Insurance to increase operating profit (OPAT) by about 10% this year, indicating strong rebound in the second half of the year, mainly driven by improvements in the asset management division. The bank expects a full-year dividend of 2.44 yuan, equivalent to a 6.7% dividend yield. In the long run, the bank prefers PICC P&C, believing that its P&C business has strong resilience against declining interest rates and lower cyclicality. The bank expects the third-quarter comprehensive cost ratio (CoR) to improve year-on-year, mainly due to reduced losses from natural disasters. With fair value changes in bond investments, the bank estimates that investment returns will also increase year-on-year.

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