这导致一些市场人士提出了一个问题：石油需求是否正式达到了“峰值”，从此之后都是下坡路？OPEC's latest annual outlook predicts strong growth in global oil demand will continue until 2050, but other participants in the market are far less optimistic about the demand outlook.
Global benchmark Brent crude oil fell below $70 per barrel in early September, the lowest level in 33 months, which is good news for consumers, but a nightmare for OPEC+, for whom oil revenue is crucial.
Earlier this month, the oil-producing alliance led by Saudi Arabia decided to postpone the increase in oil production for another two months to support oil prices, but so far to no avail. Gloomy global demand forecasts, combined with new oil supply from non-OPEC countries, mean that oil prices will remain depressed in the long term.
This has led some market participants to raise a question: Has the demand for oil officially reached the 'peak', and from now on will it only decline?
According to OPEC's own forecasts, the answer is negative.
The 'World Oil Outlook 2024' report released by the organization on Tuesday predicts a strong 24% growth in global energy demand from now until 2050. The institution also forecasts that by 2029, oil demand will reach 0.1123 billion barrels per day, an increase of 10.1 million barrels per day compared to 2023.
A significant number of energy analysts seem to disagree with this view, especially analysts from the International Energy Agency (IEA). According to the agency's June release of the annual Mid-Term Outlook, based in Paris, forecasts indicate that by the end of the 2020s, demand will actually stabilize at around 0.106 billion barrels per day. The IEA still sees global oil demand rising, just anticipating slower growth and expects to peak in this decade.
In recent years, the divergence between OPEC and the IEA in energy forecasts has attracted more attention, with the latter striving for net-zero emissions.
At the same time, S&P Global Commodity Insights believes that the mid-term outlook for global oil demand is between the expectations of the two major institutions. By 2034, demand will peak at 0.109 billion barrels per day, gradually dropping to below 0.1 billion barrels per day by 2050.
In contrast, OPEC expects global oil demand to reach 0.12 billion barrels per day by 2050.
All parties agree that oil demand in developing countries will decrease, while demand in emerging markets led by India will rise.
Mid-term Outlook for Oil Demand and Prices
Analysts generally have a bearish outlook on demand and prices in the mid-term for the oil market. Despite OPEC+ announcing in early September to extend crude oil production cuts until December in an attempt to limit market supply.
Dave Ernsberger, Managing Director of Market Report at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told CNBC: "The additional two months of production cuts have not convinced anyone who is skeptical of the market that this will greatly help support prices. So that's the issue at hand. But a bigger question is, have we already passed the moment when oil demand peaked?"
Ernsberger highlighted the growth of alternative energy forms, including the increasing use of biofuels in the shipping industry. He said, "We are entering an era of post-demand growth, not post-oil, but post-growth. How will OPEC+, the market readapt to a world where overall demand grows slowly or not at all?"
China is the world's largest oil importer, but with its move towards a specific electrification path, the prospect of rising oil prices also becomes dim.
Middle East Institute, based in Washington, resident scholar Li-Chen Sim told CNBC, "The biggest threat to boosting oil prices by OPEC+ is external threats," mainly including "weak demand, oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries; the production of some OPEC+ members exceeding the allocated quota."
Sim said, estimates from international and Chinese sources show that China's demand for oil and refined oil products is slowing down.
He added, "The decrease in oil consumption also has a structural factor, driven by a conscious effort by the country to reduce its high dependence on oil (and gas) imports, reflected in policies promoting widespread use of electric vehicles and expanding renewable energy and nuclear energy."
In the short term, OPEC+ may still partially resume production in December, while several countries in the alliance have exceeded their quotas, non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries such as the USA, Guyana, Brazil, and Canada will provide more supply to the market.
Regarding this, Ernsberger said, "As long as there is a threat of supply recovery in the market, it is difficult to see a significant increase in oil prices."
Many analysts believe that in the long run, the eventual decline of the oil era (if it really happens) will be due to changes in demand rather than a decrease in supply.
As the late Saudi oil minister Ahmed Zaki Yamani said in 2000: "The Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stones, the oil age will end, and it won’t end because we run out of oil."