According to the China Fortune Finance APP, Goldman Sachs' Chief US Stock Strategist David Kostin said that once the US presidential election results are determined, the path for US stocks to continue to rise is clear. He expects the s&p 500 index to trade around 6000 points in a year. This forecast means the s&p 500 index is expected to rise by about 5% from Tuesday's closing level, while the index has risen by about 20% so far this year.

However, David Kostin also mentioned that as the US presidential election enters its final stages, investors may have to experience some market trends in the coming weeks. Historically, this is a period of increased volatility and declining stock prices. He stated: "There is uncertainty surrounding the election, so in the short term, there will be some concerns." "This usually gets resolved after the election is over. Therefore, with time, the stock market tends to rebound after the election."

Since the end of last year when he made his 2024 forecast, David Kostin has raised his s&p 500 index forecast three times. He reiterated his year-end target of 5600 points for the s&p 500 index, citing expectations of recent volatility due to the US presidential election. Wall Street analysts currently have an average year-end target for the s&p 500 index around 5523 points.

David Kostin sees opportunities in middle cap stocks, pointing out that the "long-term performance" of middle cap stocks is superior to large cap and small cap stocks, with lower p/e ratios and higher value. He also noted that in the 3 months and 12 months following a rate cut, the performance of middle cap stocks outperforms. He said: "Our current focus is on middle cap stocks because it is an area in the market that receives the least attention from many portfolio managers." "This is an area that could truly perform well in the coming year."

David Kostin believes that strong corporate earnings will be the main driver of the stock market in the coming months. He also believes that concerns about weakening trends in job market data have been exaggerated. Goldman Sachs economists attribute the recent rise in US unemployment rate mainly to an increase in labor supply and temporary frictions brought by new immigrants, rather than a sudden drop in labor demand.

David Kostin and his team also stated late last week that the slowdown in labor cost growth is a positive sign for corporate profit margins and will have a positive impact on US stocks, especially for companies with high labor costs.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs global market division director Scott Rubner said earlier this week that US stocks are expected to rebound by the end of the year, but will rebound only after facing unfavorable short-term situations such as technical positioning, capital flows, and pre-election anxiety. Scott Rubner stated in a client report last Friday: "Tactically, I am bearish on the quarter end, but the target is for the S&P 500 index to rebound by the end of the year."

Scott Rubner stated that as the US presidential election approaches, institutional investors are selling favored long positions, buying S&P 500 put options spreads to hedge potential losses. He anticipates that more selling will come from hedge funds, which still have high risk exposure in the election, but typically reduce positions before the vote. More importantly, trend-following systematic funds are only bullish for the next five trading days, and commodity trading advisors (CTAs) are expected to sell $47 billion in US stocks next month if market sentiment turns negative.

Scott Rubner pointed out that as a result, recent trends will involve volatile trading, declining stock prices, and increased volatility. He believes that the situation will change after the election, and regardless of the winner, the S&P 500 index will experience year-end rebound driven by 'Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)', with the index rising to 6000 by the end of the year. He stated that investors may chase risk assets in November and December, reallocating cash in portfolios to stocks.

Scott Rubner stated that since 1900, the median return of the S&P 500 index in November and December of election years is 3.4%. He also predicts that once the dust settles on the election results, the breadth of the stock market will improve, with inflation-sensitive stocks, value stocks, energy stocks, and emerging market stocks outperforming the large cap market.