The Zhitong Finance App learned that the National Day “Golden Week” has entered the countdown, and travel is about to reach its peak. According to data recently released by several travel platforms, long-term travel has become the mainstream of travel reservations for the National Day holiday. Among them, outbound travel has increased significantly, and the number of outbound air ticket and hotel reservations has greatly surpassed the same period last year. China Galaxy Securities believes that if weather factors improve during the 11th holiday season, the backlog of travel demand is expected to be released. Combined with last year's low base, this year it is expected to increase month-on-month and year-on-year.

According to the “2024 National Day Travel Forecast Report” issued by Ctrip Group, over 6 became long-distance travelers during the National Day, and surrounding tours accounted for only 20%. According to Tuniu data, up to now, the proportion of domestic long-term travelers has reached 52%, and the proportion of outbound travelers is 28%. On the Ctrip platform, the number of visas processed for National Day trips increased 70% compared to last year.

This year's National Day country tours and county tours are still hot travel spots. According to Ctrip's forecast, in terms of domestic travel during the National Day holiday this year, travelers from Tier 1 and 2 cities visited the county for leisure trips and family visits, driving an increase of more than 60% in country tour orders, and a 20% increase in county travel orders over the same period last year.

According to statistics from some online travel platforms, during the National Day holiday this year, places such as Wulong in Chongqing, Nujiang in Yunnan, Meishan in Sichuan, Tacheng in Xinjiang, and Zigong in Sichuan led the country in growth. With their “beautiful scenery and low prices”, these destinations are becoming the choice of more and more tourists. In addition to having to go far and have unique fun, the sense of quality and richness has also become factors that consumers particularly value during the National Day holiday this year. According to Flying Pig data, with this year's National Day holiday being one day less than last year's Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday, the current average customer unit price still surpassed last year's average customer unit price by about 6%.

Furthermore, international routes have increased, ticket prices have declined, and outbound and inbound travel are “going both ways”.

Looking at the destination dimension, Ctrip data shows that inbound travel orders during the National Day holiday increased by 60%, and domestic cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Chongqing became the top ten most popular cities during the National Day holiday.

Outbound travel is also popular. The number of visas processed for National Day trips increased 70% compared to last year. Big data on where to go shows that the number of international air ticket reservations for the National Day holiday this year doubled compared to the same period last year. Currently, National Day outbound ticket orders have covered 1,597 cities in 144 countries.

In terms of air tickets, on September 24, according to the Flight Manager App, domestic air ticket (economy class) fares for the 2024 National Day holiday fell 23% from 2023, 8% from 2019, and increased 35% from the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. Popular domestic destinations. Judging from airline ticket search data, the top 10 most popular domestic destinations during the 2024 National Day are: Beijing, Chengdu, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Xi'an, Chongqing, Wuhan, Changsha, and Kunming. In terms of international air tickets, the average price of international/Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan air tickets (economy class) during the National Day holiday fell 30.43% from 2023, down 12.86% from 2019, and 16.24% from Mid-Autumn Festival in 2024.

SPDB International said that demand for Mid-Autumn Festival travel is growing steadily, inbound and outbound travel is recovering rapidly, and the trend of volume increases and price declines may continue, and the National Day holiday is expected to usher in a release of long-distance demand. Despite consumer uncertainty, the trip observed that overall travel was resilient, and demand for experiential consumption such as concerts, music festivals, and cultural tourism remained strong, which was beneficial to OTA and the domestic hotel industry.

Shen Wan Hongyuan pointed out that judging from the current volume of major traffic reservations, there has been a significant increase. Without extreme weather, the number of travelers during the National Day holiday is expected to reach a new high this year. Airline tickets and hotel prices have returned to a reasonable level, mainly because supply began to be reimbursed compared to last year. The number of outbound long-term visitors has sunk significantly, and customers in low-tier cities have become a new growth point.

Related concept stocks:

OTA platform:

Ctrip Group-S (09961): In mid-late September, Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that it maintains the Ctrip Group-S (09961) “buy” rating, with a target price of HK$517. Due to relatively wider domestic consumption, travel demand is more flexible, so the Ctrip Group maintains its compound annual yield forecast of 16% for 2024-2027.

Tongcheng Travel (00780): Tongcheng Travel previously released results. The second quarter achieved revenue of 4.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.1%, a record high in revenue scale in a single quarter; adjusted net profit of 0.66 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.5%; the company's performance growth rate was higher than the industry average. HSBC said that Tongcheng Travel's second-quarter results slightly beat expectations. Due to improved core OTA profits, the higher commission rate helped offset the impact of the slowdown in GMV growth.

Hotel category:

Shangri-La (Asia) (00069): At the end of August, CICC released a research report stating that it maintained the Shangri-La (Asia) (00069) “outperforming the industry” rating and lowered the 24/25 EBITDA (including associated companies) by 14%/15% to 0.812/0.843 billion US dollars due to increased costs such as opening new projects and recruiting employees. The target price was lowered by 16% to HK$6.3 based on the downward shift in the industry's valuation center. The company's 1H24 performance was slightly lower than the bank's expectations.

Huazhu Group-S (01179): Recent results for the six months ended June 30, 2024. The total revenue for the period was 11.426 billion yuan (RMB), an increase of 14.15% over the previous year; net profit attributable to Huazhu Group Co., Ltd. was 1.726 billion yuan; basic profit per share was 0.55 yuan. In the second quarter, the group obtained total revenue of 6.148 billion yuan, an increase of 11.18% year on year; net profit attributable to Huazhu Group Co., Ltd. was 1.067 billion yuan, up 5.12% year on year; and basic profit per share was 0.34 yuan.

Scenic area category:

Fosun Tourism Culture (01992): Recently announced the 2024 interim results, with revenue of about 9.415 billion yuan, up 5.8% year on year; gross profit of about 3.2065 billion yuan, up 4.22% year on year; profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was about 0.322 billion yuan, adjusted net profit of about 0.333 billion yuan, and profit per share of 0.26 yuan.

Hong Kong China Travel Service (00308): China Travel Hong Kong recently announced its interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2024. The group obtained revenue of HK$2.137 billion during the period, up 3.99% year on year; profit attributable to shareholders was HK$63.23 million, a decrease of 71.8% year on year; basic profit per share was 1.14 HK cents; and proposed to pay an interim dividend of HK1.5 cents per share.