维持“增持” 评级：公司2024年中报实现营收834.71 亿元，同比-18.5%，归母净利润-20.18 亿元，同比转亏，低于预期。考虑到水泥亏损时长和幅度较大，且材料板块部分盈利压力仍存，下调24-26 年净利润预测至11.75、22.76、29.87 亿元（-28.03、-23.76、-20.55 亿元），根据可比公司25 年11.97x PE，下调目标价至3.23 港元。Introduction to this report:
The company announced its 2024 mid-year report. The main cement industry in the basic building materials sector still lost money, but Q2 losses narrowed, and the new materials sector still maintained incremental capacity in fields such as fiberglass, blades, and diaphragms.
Key points of investment:
Maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating: The company achieved revenue of 83.471 billion yuan in the 2024 interim report, -18.5% year-on-year, and net profit to mother -2.018 billion yuan, which turned into losses year on year, lower than expected. The 24-26 net profit forecast was lowered to 1.175, 2.276, and 2.987 billion yuan (-2.803, -2.376, -2.055 billion yuan), and the target price was lowered to HK$3.23 based on the comparable company's 25-year 11.97x PE.
Q2 cement losses narrowed slightly from month to month, and the Q3 industry's willingness to raise prices increased. 24H1 achieved 0.114 billion tons of cement and clinker sales, which was greater than the 10% sales drop in the industry. It was determined that under the impact of a cliff-style decline in industry demand, the company, as an industry leader, sacrificed part of its sales volume in order to maintain the balance between supply and demand in various regions. The company's cement and clinker prices were 241 yuan/ton, -19.1% year over year. The overall price increase was not significant. However, the cost side of coal prices declined month-on-month. It is expected that Q2's loss per ton of cement will narrow month-on-month. Entering Q3, as profit pressure on the industry is still strong, and the willingness to raise prices has increased in various regions of the country. It is expected that Q3 companies' comprehensive prices and profits will recover month-on-month.
The volume of the new materials sector increased and profits declined, and engineering services overseas and operation and maintenance services were highlights. 1) New materials sector: 24H1 new materials sector revenue of 23.55 billion yuan, +0.6% year on year, gross profit margin of 23.7% year on year, -2.30pct year on year. Among them, gypsum board, glass fiber, carbon fiber, blade, and diaphragm business sales volume were +6.9%, +19.4%, 10.9%, -21.6%, and +15.1%, respectively. Prices were -2.1%, -18.4%, -38.2%, -15.7%, and -34.5%, respectively. The company's leading position in the field of new materials is reflected in the good growth situation in various sectors, but new materials generally face price reduction pressure due to increased competition, leading to a year-on-year decline in profitability. 2) Engineering service sector: 24H1 achieved revenue of 20.57 billion yuan, +1.7% year-on-year, gross profit margin of 18.6%, year-on-year +1.0pct. New domestic contracts are under pressure against the backdrop of increased downstream cement pressure, but operation and maintenance are still a bit bright. 24H1 overseas contracts signed +9% year-on-year, and new operation and maintenance contracts are +41% year-on-year.
Capital expenditure has declined moderately, and financial risk is manageable. 24H1's capital expenditure was 13 billion yuan, +8% year over year. The total capital expenditure declined moderately, the structure was optimized, and the direction of investment in new materials, overseas, and equity was changed. The company's receivables were 86.6 billion yuan, -3.4 billion yuan year on year, with a balance ratio of 60%, and manageable statement risk.
Risk warning: Wrong implementation is not in place, and the price of raw coal has risen.
