China's combination of policies boosted confidence in the international markets, leading to a surge in China concept stocks and the renminbi, successfully reversing the downtrend in US stocks. At the start of US stock trading, due to a series of weak economic data pressures, the NASDAQ fell by over 0.6% at the lowest point.

China's stimulus measures boosted commodities, benefiting metals and mining sectors, with European and American mining stocks leading the gains. US oil and Brent crude oil briefly rose by nearly 3% during the session. China concept stocks index shone throughout the day, closing up over 9% to achieve the largest increase and four-month high since 2022, Pinduoduo, Xpeng, Nio, and Li Auto all rose by over 11%, Bilibili rose by 17%, JD.com rose by nearly 14%, Alibaba rose by nearly 8%, Miniso fell by 8.7% before closing down over 2%. Industrial giant Caterpillar rose by about 4% to a new high, European and American casinos, automotive, and luxury goods stocks rose, Eurozone blue-chip stock indices and French stocks rose by over 1%.

US consumers' concerns about the labor market and overall economic outlook intensified, with the US Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly dropping significantly by 6.9 points to 98.7 in September, marking the largest decline in three years. High interest rates limited buyers' purchasing power, and the rising trend in US house prices slowed in July. The Richmond Federal Reserve's manufacturing index for September fell to a low point since the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak.

President Biden of the United States stated that the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates. The market is increasingly betting on the magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut in November rising from 53.0% to 56.1%. It is expected that the number of rate cuts within the year will exceed 3 times, with 4 rate cuts in 2025. US bond yields fell across the board, with short-term bond yields sensitive to interest rates experiencing deeper declines. The US dollar softened to near a more than one-year low, as expectations of rate cuts and tensions in the Middle East pushed gold to surpass $2660, hitting a historic high.

Internationally, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda "hinted" at no rush to raise interest rates, stating that inflation risks have eased and there is "sufficient time to weigh policies". Analysts say that his remarks indicate a low likelihood of policy action by the Bank of Japan at the next month's meeting, leading to the yen declining to a low of 144.68, but supported by the weakening US dollar, the yen rose to approach 143 at the end of the session. The Reserve Bank of Australia remained "on hold" for the seventh consecutive time, lifting the Australian dollar to a 14-month high.

Dow Jones and S&P 500 hit record highs, with financial stocks notably lagging behind. Visa fell by 5.5% due to being sued by the US Department of Justice for antitrust issues. Mining stocks surged, Chinese concept stocks soared, with Pinduoduo rising over 11%, leading the components of the Nasdaq 100 index:

• The three major US indices edged up slightly: the S&P 500 rose by 14.36 points, up 0.25%, to 5732.93 points. The Dow Jones, closely related to the economic cycle, rose by 83.57 points, up 0.20%, to 42208.22 points. The Nasdaq, dominated by technology stocks, rose by 100.25 points, up 0.56%, to 18074.52 points. The Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.47%, with the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap-weighted Index (NDXTMC) up by 0.72%, measuring the performance of the Nasdaq 100 technology sector constituents. More sensitive to the economic cycle,E-mini Russell 2000 Index rose by 0.17%. The VIX fear index fell by 3.15% to 15.39.

• US industry ETFs closed mixed. The semiconductor ETF and Global Aviation Industry ETF each rose by nearly 2%, the Consumer Discretionary ETF, Internet Stock Index ETF, Technology Industry ETF, and Global Technology Stock ETF each rose by nearly 1%. While the Regional Banking ETF and Banking ETF both fell by over 1%, the Financial Industry ETF and Utility ETF also fell by close to 1%.

• The S&P 500 index's 11 sectors showed mixed movements. The financial sector fell by 0.92%, the utility sector rose by 0.76%, the consumer staples sector rose by 0.38%, the energy sector fell by 0.29%, the healthcare sector fell by 0.22%, the real estate sector fell by 0.07%, the telecommunications sector rose by 0.40%, the industrial sector rose by 0.70%, the consumer discretionary sector rose by 0.76%, the information technology/technology sector rose by 0.79%, and materials rose by 1.35%.

• On the research strategy: UBS Group CEO Sergio Ermotti emphasized that despite facing challenges, UBS is still committed to the Asia-Pacific region, especially the Chinese market, seeing it as a key driver of growth. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin is bullish on middle-cap stocks in a rate-cut environment, believing they outperform large and small cap stocks with better valuations. Kostin predicts the S&P 500 index will reach 6,000 points by 2025, once the dust settles after the U.S. presidential election, the U.S. stock market will continue to rise.

• "Tech Seven Sisters" mostly rose. Nvidia closed up 3.97%, soaring nearly 4.8% intraday. Huang Renxun finished selling over $0.7 billion worth of stocks. Tesla closed up 1.71% to a two-month high, with Apple up 0.4%, Amazon up 0.04%, Google A up 0.27%, Meta down 0.19%, Microsoft down 1%.

• Most chip stocks rose. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 1.31%. Industry ETF SOXX increased by 1.21%; Nvidia's double long ETF rose by 7.9%. Taiwan Semiconductor's U.S. stock rose by 4.13%, Morgan Stanley raised target price by 5% due to chip capacity expansion and strong AI semiconductor demand, maintaining a shareholding rating. Applied Materials increased by 1.41%, ASML ADR up 1.31%, KLA Corp up 1.19%, Arm Holdings up 1.11%, Intel up 1.11%, Broadcom up 1.1%, on Semiconductor up 1.05%, AMD up 1%, Qualcomm up 0.6%, Micron Technology up 0.46%, Marvell Technology down 0.85%.

• AI concept stocks mostly fell. SoundHound AI held by Nvidia increased by 0.41%, Serve Robotics up 1.64%, while CrowdStrike down 1.57%, Oracle down 0.09%, BigBear.ai down 0.64%, BullFrog AI down 8.78%, Palantir down 2.77%, Super Micro Computer down 0.5%, Snowflake down 0.67%, Dell Technologies down 0.22%, C3.ai down 0.39%.

• Chinese concept stocks significantly outperformed the overall U.S. stock market. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 9.13%, hitting a four-month high, achieving the largest single-day increase since 2022. In ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose by 9.67%. The Chinese Internet Index ETF (KWEB) rose by 10.32%. The FTSE China 3x Bull ETF (YINN) rose by 29.13%, 2x Long CSI Internet Stocks ETF-Direxion increased by 20.68%, while the FTSE China 3x Bear ETF (YANG) fell by 29.41%.

• Among the popular China concept stocks, Kanzhun Net/BOSS Zhipin closed up 19.32%, Bilibili closed up 17.02%, JD.com closed up 13.91%, Mengniu Dairy ADR closed up 12.7%, Xpeng closed up 11.92%, Nio Inc. closed up 11.65%, Li Auto Inc. closed up 11.35%, PDD Holdings closed up 11.24%, Meituan ADR closed up 11.23%, Zhihu Inc. closed up 9.77%, Vipshop closed up 8.33%, Trip.com closed up 8.09%, Netease closed up 8.06%, New Oriental closed up 7.88%, Alibaba closed up 7.88%, Baidu closed up 7.4%, Tencent Holdings ADR closed up 7%. Miniso closed down 2.33%, once falling more than 8.8% during the trading session, continuing the 16.65% plunge on Monday. 6.3 billion acquired the controlling stake of Yonghui Superstores, with the CEO stating that the "Pinduoduo model is a once-in-a-20-year opportunity", while Zhongjin Medical also closed down 10.06%.

• The options market shows investors' high optimism for Chinese stocks, with a surge in call options trading volume for iShares Core MSCI China Index ETF (FXI). The premium for contracts betting on a 10% increase in FXI within a month over those betting on a 10% decrease reached the highest level since 2015. Additionally, call options for Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) and Pinduoduo ADR were also in demand, while call options trading volume for emerging market funds like iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) significantly increased.

• Other key stocks: (1) Starbucks fell by 1.08%, Jefferies Financial downgraded Starbucks from hold to underperform, with a target price of $76. (2) Visa fell by 5.5%, marking its worst single-day performance since October 2021, as the company faces antitrust charges from the U.S. Department of Justice.

Boosted by China's stimulus measures, European stock markets closed higher, with mining stocks rising 4.5% leading the gains. The French stock index closed up nearly 1.3%, leading various European stock indices:

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.65% at 519.70 points. Mining stocks generally rose, with mining company Antofagasta soaring 7% leading the gains, Anglo American, Glencore, and Rio Tinto all rising over 4%. Luxury goods concept stocks rose across the board, L'Oreal up 4.21%, LVMH Group up 3.19%. Automotive stocks also performed well, BMW up 3.7%, Volkswagen up nearly 2%.

The German stock index closed up 0.80%. The French stock index closed up 1.28%. The Italian stock index closed up 0.60%. The Spanish stock index closed up 0.33%. The UK stock index closed up 0.28%. The Dutch stock index closed up 0.41%.

Market expectations for rate cuts at the next meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have increased. The yields on 2-year U.S. and German bonds both dropped by over 5 basis points, with the 2/10-year U.S. bond yield curve steepening after the end of the inversion.

• US Bonds: At the close, the yield on the more rate-sensitive 2-year US Treasury bond fell by 5.29 basis points, hitting a daily low of 3.5337%, moving away from the daily high of 3.6137% set at 20:28. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond fell by 1.71 basis points, closing at 3.7318%, moving away from the daily high of 3.8077% set at 20:38 Beijing time, with a high-to-low intraday movement.

• European Bonds: The yield on the 10-year German benchmark bond dropped by 0.9 basis points. The 2-year German bond yield fell by 5.2 basis points to a nearly one-and-a-half year low. The yield on the French 10-year government bond dropped by 2.2 basis points, the yield on the Italian 10-year government bond fell by 2.8 basis points, the yield on the UK 10-year government bond rose by 2.0 basis points, and the yield on the 2-year UK bond dropped by 0.9 basis points.

The US Dollar Index DXY fell by 0.5%, approaching a new low in over a year during intraday trading. The British pound hit a two-and-a-half year high again, while the Japanese yen continued to rebound. The offshore Chinese yuan rose nearly 600 points from the intraday low to touch 7.01 yuan, the highest in 16 months:

• USD: The DXY, which measures against a basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.49% to 100.360 points, with an intraday trading range of 101.049-100.340 points.

• The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.46% to 1218.38 points, with an intraday trading range of 1225.47-1218.25 points.

• UBS predicts that with the increasing sensitivity of the US dollar to weak economic data, the US dollar may further decline in the coming months.

• Non-dollar currencies rose across the board: the Euro rose by 0.58% against the US dollar, the British pound rose by 0.49% against the dollar, and the US dollar fell by 0.51% against the Swiss franc; among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose by 0.81% against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar rose by 1.13%, reaching a new high since December 2023, and the US dollar fell by 0.79% against the Canadian dollar.

• Japanese Yen: The yen rose by 0.30% against the US dollar to 143.18 yen, with an intraday trading range of 144.68-143.11 yen.

• Offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH): The offshore Chinese Yuan rose by 493 points at the close to 7.0111 yuan, with overall trading in the range of 7.0694-7.0100 yuan, approaching the top of 7.0071 yuan on May 18, 2023, and 6.9927 yuan on May 17 of the same year.

• Cryptocurrencies are generally on the rise. The largest market cap leader, Bitcoin, closed up 1.55% in the final trading session, at $64,340.00. The second largest, Ethereum, closed down 0.79% in the final trading session, at $2,651.50.

Due to bullish Chinese stimulus measures on oil demand outlook, tensions in the Middle East, and hurricane risks triggering supply concerns, both WTI and Brent crude oil rose by 1.7%, rallying nearly 3% at one point during the session.

• WTI Crude Oil: WTI November futures closed up $1.19, with a gain of over 1.69%, at $71.56 per barrel. WTI maintained its upward trend throughout the day, with pre-market trading on U.S. stocks reaching a high of nearly 2.9% touching $72.40, the highest this month.

• Brent Crude Oil: Brent November futures closed up $1.27, with a gain of nearly 1.72%, at $75.17 per barrel. Brent oil maintained its upward trend throughout the day, with European stocks rising by nearly 2.7% to approach $75.90.

• In terms of news, according to CCTV News, the EU representative stated that the Middle East is on the brink of 'full-scale war.' Israeli forces claimed to have killed the head of Hezbollah's missile unit and conducted four rounds of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon within a day. Meanwhile, U.S. oil producers are busy evacuating personnel from Gulf of Mexico oil production platforms as a second hurricane is expected to hit offshore oil fields within two weeks, causing several oil companies to partially shut down production.

• Natural Gas: U.S. October natural gas futures closed down over 2.37%, at $2.5510 per million British thermal units.

The tensions in the Middle East and rate cut expectations have driven gold prices to new highs for multiple days, with spot gold rising nearly 1.4% to above $2,660 during trading, marking a cumulative increase of 29% year-to-date.

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures rose 1.11% at the close, to $2682 per ounce, reaching as high as $2689.40 during the session, setting an intraday historical high. Spot gold fell slightly during the Asian session, with pre-market trading in the US stock market accelerating, rising nearly 1.4% to surpass $2660 at the end of the session, continuing to set new highs, up 29% year-to-date.

• Silver: COMEX December silver futures rose 4.34% at the close, to $32.435 per ounce. Spot silver fell slightly during the Asian session, with US stocks accelerating in early trading and rising over 5.1% to break above $32.30 at the end of the session.

• RJO Futures Senior Market Strategist Bob Haberkorn pointed out that if the situation in the Middle East escalates further, and there are rumors that the Fed will further cut interest rates in the future, gold prices may break through $2700 as early as this weekend.

• London industrial base metals all rose. Dr. Copper, an economic indicator, rose nearly 2.60% to $2556 per ton. London zinc rose by about 4.30%. London aluminum rose over 2.48%. London nickel rose more than 1%. London tin rose by about 1.22%. London lead rose by about 1.36%.

• COMEX copper futures rose 4.12%, to $4.5267 per pound.

• Raw sugar futures rose by about 2.9%, leading to a cumulative increase of about 26% in the past two weeks. ICE raw sugar futures rose 2.88%, accumulating a rebound of 25.88% since the end of trading on September 10th; ICE white sugar futures rose 2.34%.

Editor/ping