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With the news of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, the crypto market has begun to emerge from the 'long' consolidation period and started to rise: Bitcoin once broke through $64,750 and Ethereum once broke through $2,700.
As of the time of publication, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$Above the $63,000 level, it has risen by more than 20% from the monthly low point. $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ Showing impressive performance, it has achieved 8 consecutive increases, with a cumulative increase of nearly 16%.
At the same time, the concept stocks of cryptos $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ It has risen more than 20% in the past 10 trading days. $Hut 8 (HUT.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Iris Energy (IREN.US)$ Up more than 10%, $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Coinbase (COIN.US)$ Up nearly 10%.
In the Hong Kong stock market, cryptos ETFs, $ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF (03042.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Bosera HashKey Bitcoin ETF (03008.HK)$ With a cumulative increase of over 15% in the past 10 trading days, $Harvest Bitcoin Spot ETF (03439.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF (03066.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$ChinaAMC Ether ETF (03046.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Harvest Ether Spot ETF (03179.HK)$ All rose more than 14%. $Bosera HashKey Ether ETF (03009.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$CSOP Ether Futures ETF (03068.HK)$ Rise over 13%.
It is worth noting that there have been frequent good news in the crypto industry recently. In addition to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, the US SEC approved the listing of Bitcoin ETF options, and Harris's first public support for crypto investments have injected optimistic sentiment into the crypto market.
Currently, the market is very optimistic about the future trends of the crypto market. According to the Chicago Fed report, the current financial industry is the most loose since November 2021, which may be favorable for Bitcoin development.
Renowned analyst Crypto Rover stated that, based on bitcoin's historical data, market trends after halving often begin to rebound near the fourth quarter. He predicts that, following historical patterns, a bitcoin bull market may start within the next 15-20 days, aligning with the approaching end of the accumulation phase.
Looking at historical data, bitcoin typically performs strongly in October and is expected to continue throughout the entire Q4.
It is worth noting that in addition to technical aspects and historical trends, the 2024 US presidential election is also seen as a potential catalyst for the bitcoin bull market. Analysts expect that regardless of the election results, it will have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market. Elections bring uncertainty and policy changes, which may prompt investors to put more funds into safe-haven assets like bitcoin.
Wall Street investment bank Bernstein also pointed out in its latest report on Monday that various factors, from macroeconomic changes to shifts in market sentiment, have collectively driven this recent bitcoin uptrend. Here are the five key reasons behind bitcoin's latest uptrend as perceived by Bernstein:
The crypto industry is increasingly gaining support from both parties.
Bernstein stated that cryptocurrencies are receiving political support, with support from both US parties adding momentum to bitcoin.
Recently, Democratic candidate Harris openly endorsed the development of cryptocurrencies, stating that she will encourage innovative technologies like artificial intelligence and digital assets. She also mentioned that if elected, she would help increase investments in AI and cryptocurrencies.
Most people believe that if Trump is re-elected, bitcoin will have a more significant initial upside potential. However, in the long run, regardless of the winner, ethereum is expected to rise.
Bitcoin ETF momentum is strong.
The inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETF has remained stable. Bernstein wrote: In the past 10 days, despite significant price fluctuations, Bitcoin ETF still attracted an inflow of 0.8 billion USD.
Bernstein expects that more institutions like Morgan Stanley will launch Bitcoin ETFs, which may further drive the inflow of funds as investment advisors attract clients.
Monetary Policy
Another factor driving the rise of Bitcoin is the unexpected 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Analysts believe that any signal of loose monetary policy, along with a possible weakening US dollar, is bullish for Bitcoin. The bank's analysts emphasized,
US national debt has now reached around $35 trillion. Bitcoin is seen as an alternative non-sovereign asset, with a relative value similar to gold, especially in the case of continued excessive fiscal policies by the government.
Stability of Bitcoin mining and the impact of halving
It is said that Bitcoin miners have already adapted to the halving event in April 2024, and their business has stabilized. According to Bernstein, the hash rate has rebounded, indicating that the mining industry still has resilience and further solidifies the foundation of Bitcoin.
Selling pressure has decreased.
The large-scale Bitcoin sales by the German and USA governments have come to an end. In addition, as a major holder of Bitcoin on Wall Street, MicroStrategy has been buying more recently.
As of September 20, 2024, MicroStrategy holds a total of 252,220 Bitcoins, with a total purchase cost of approximately $9.9 billion. Three years later, MicroStrategy once again splurged $1.1 billion to purchase Bitcoin, undoubtedly giving a boost to the recovering crypto market.
Overall, the Bitcoin market currently faces opportunities and challenges. On one hand, historical data and technical analysis indicate that with the gradual manifestation of the halving effect, the fourth quarter may become the starting point of a Bitcoin bull market. On the other hand, while the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may stimulate the market in the short term, based on historical experience, it may also herald an impending economic recession.
This is a translation for Text 17.This is a translation for Text 18.
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Editor/Somer