2023 年以来缅甸锡矿主产区政策扰动加大，当前来看曼相矿区复产不确定仍较大，随着库存原矿逐步消化，预计缅甸对外出口锡矿量或逐步萎缩。项目情况来看，近年投产的大型项目较少，未来2-3 年内难形成增量。资源稀缺性凸显叠加在产矿山生产扰动频发，预计未来锡资源供应瓶颈将呈加速显现态势。Ping An's point of view:
Tin Industry Co., Ltd.: Building a global leader in fine tin. The company has an integrated industrial chain for exploration, selection and deep processing of non-ferrous metal resources such as tin, indium, zinc, copper, etc., with tin and indium resource reserves ranking first in the world. In 2023, the company's tin metal global market share reached 22.92%, and the domestic market share reached 47.92%, making it the absolute leader in refined tin smelting in the world.
Tin industry supply: The abundance of resources is low, and production is greatly disrupted. Currently, the global tin storage ratio is less than 15 years, and it is the only industrial metal whose reserves have declined over the past 20 years. Global tin ore production is mainly distributed in China, Indonesia, Myanmar and other countries. The depletion of tin resources in Indonesia is serious. It has gradually switched to undersea mining. It is expected that the supply of tin in Indonesia may gradually decline in the future.
Since 2023, policy disturbances in Myanmar's main tin ore production area have increased. Currently, the resumption of production in the Manxiang mining area is still very uncertain. As stocks of raw ore are gradually digested, it is expected that Myanmar's foreign exports of tin ore may gradually shrink. Looking at the project situation, few large-scale projects have been put into operation in recent years, and it is difficult to increase in the next 2-3 years. The scarcity of resources highlights frequent production disturbances in production in production mines. It is expected that bottlenecks in the supply of tin resources will accelerate in the future.
Demand in the tin industry: The semiconductor boom is picking up, and demand space is opening up. Semiconductors are the basic market for solder consumption, and the upward boom is expected to drive a rapid recovery in demand for solder. Judging from historical performance, the LME tin price is positively correlated to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to a certain extent. Since 2024, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has been in an upward channel as a whole. As the semiconductor boom cycle begins, demand for solder is expected to pick up rapidly. As new photovoltaic installations maintain a high increase, photovoltaic welding belts are another growth pole in demand for soldering. It is estimated that PV modules will meet the 2023-2025 CAGR of fine tin demand by over 17%.
Tin balance: The global fine tin balance is expected to continue to tighten. As the long-term AI field accelerates development and semiconductors enter an upward boom cycle, demand for tin solder is expected to open up room for growth, driving the core demand for fine tin. The rigidity of the mineral tin is expected to gradually become apparent as resources are scarce and overseas supply instability, the supply of fine tin is expected to gradually shrink, and the global fine tin balance is expected to tighten.
Profit forecasts and investment suggestions:
At the industry level, as semiconductors enter a boom cycle and the long-term AI field accelerates development, demand for fine tin is expected to enter a period of rapid growth. On the supply side, scarcity of resources is still a core constraint on the release of long-term tin supply flexibility. Furthermore, disruptions in inventory projects in countries such as Indonesia and Myanmar are gradually increasing. The future supply of fine tin is unspeakably optimistic, and tin prices may enter a long-term boom channel.
As industry sentiment increases, the company's performance is expected to continue to grow. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 45, 45.33, 45.82 billion yuan, and net profit to mother of 1.97, 2.85, and 3.21 billion yuan. The corresponding PE was 11.1, 7.7, and 6.8 times, and the first coverage gave a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning:
1. The increase in supply greatly exceeded expectations and was released. If the increase in global tin ore supply exceeds expectations, tin prices are at risk of falling.
2. Downstream demand falls short of expectations. If demand growth in semiconductor and other terminal sectors slows down, tin prices are at risk of falling.
3. The emergence of alternative technologies and products. If relevant alternative technologies and products appear in the short term, it may have a significant impact on long-term demand for fine tin, which in turn will have an impact on the company's performance.
