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Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR) Stock Performs Better Than Its Underlying Earnings Growth Over Last Five Years

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 24 19:32

It hasn't been the best quarter for Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE:MUR) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 13% in that time. On the bright side the share price is up over the last half decade. In that time, it is up 62%, which isn't bad, but is below the market return of 106%. While the long term returns are impressive, we do have some sympathy for those who bought more recently, given the 21% drop, in the last year.

On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the last half decade, Murphy Oil became profitable. That's generally thought to be a genuine positive, so investors may expect to see an increasing share price.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

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NYSE:MUR Earnings Per Share Growth September 24th 2024

We know that Murphy Oil has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Murphy Oil stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Murphy Oil the TSR over the last 5 years was 89%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Murphy Oil shareholders are down 18% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 32%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 14%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Murphy Oil better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Murphy Oil that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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