Ameresco, Inc. (NYSE:AMRC) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 10% over that time.
After such a large jump in price, Ameresco may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 34.8x, since almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 18x and even P/E's lower than 10x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Ameresco certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
How Is Ameresco's Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Ameresco's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 7.5% gain to the company's bottom line. Still, lamentably EPS has fallen 22% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 40% each year during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. With the market only predicted to deliver 10% each year, the company is positioned for a stronger earnings result.
With this information, we can see why Ameresco is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
What We Can Learn From Ameresco's P/E?
Shares in Ameresco have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of Ameresco's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
Having said that, be aware Ameresco is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those are a bit unpleasant.
If you're unsure about the strength of Ameresco's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.