FX168 Financial News (North America) News 2024 can be called a “general election” year. As we all know, the US election will be held in November. There are some key market catalysts that could shake up stock prices between now and November.

With the Federal Reserve announcing its first rate cut since 2020 last week, much of the uncertainty in the stock market has been removed — at least in the short term.

In a report on Monday (September 23), Bank of America highlighted the most important days for the stock market between now and the November presidential election.

This bank usesOption pricesto plot the implied fluctuations in the S&P 500 from now until each day after the election.

(Photo: BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH)

October 10

As the Federal Reserve shifts its focus from inflation to the labor market, the September CPI data is thought to have less impact on the stock market than other published data.

Options pricingIt shows that when the September CPI data was released on October 10, the daily fluctuation of the S&P 500 index was slightly less than 1%.

Bank of America said, “Before the first rate cut, inflation data was the most important data worth watching. But now that the Federal Reserve has begun a cycle of cutting interest rates, we think labor market data (such as NFP) will be more noteworthy than inflation.”

October 21

This date is the expected date for some big tech companies to announce third-quarter earnings results.

The option price shows that the implied fluctuation of the S&P 500 index in either direction is 1%.

Bank of America said, “The important third quarter earnings week (October 21-25) should also be an important catalyst for the market,” and investors will keep a close eye on any updates relating to the monetization of artificial intelligence technology.

October 4 and November 1

Investors will pay close attention to the September and October non-farm payrolls reports released on October 4 and November 1, respectively.

Options market pricing The S&P 500 index will rise a little more than 1% in any direction during these days.

Bank of America said that steady employment reports and PMI data could drive up the stock price.

Bank of America said, “We think good news is good news for the stock market. The positive surprise in these two figures should be a positive factor for the future stock market.”

November 6

Technically speaking, the day after the election is the most important day for the stock market (November 6), when the market can respond to the results.

The bank estimates that the S&P 500 index will fluctuate 2.5% in either direction on November 6.

This will be a big day for investors as, assuming a decisive winner, the market will begin pricing what kind of policies might be adopted during the four-year term of the 47th US president.

The stock market experienced fluctuations of a similar magnitude the day after the last presidential election, with the S&P 500 rising 2.2% on November 4, 2020.