此次交易将对公司本年度业绩造成重大影响，为格拉默美洲区扭亏为盈夯实基础。本次交易主要系TMD 公司产品与公司其他产品协同效应不强，公司拟通过这次交易聚焦主业，提升核心竞争力。本次出售TMD LLC100%股权将对公司本年度业绩造成重大影响，据公司初步核算，预计亏损2.8~3.8 亿元人民币。我们认为，虽然本次交易将承担财务损失，但却是公司在美洲区域有序推行自身业务结构的优化调整，找到持续亏损的源头，并从源头上解决问题的体现，为未来北美地区业务的不亏损甚至盈利夯实了基础。我们预计交割完成后有利于改善格拉默美洲区域的盈利能力和财务状况，从而提升公司整体盈利水平。Incidents:
On September 22, 2024, Jifeng Co., Ltd. announced that Grammer, a holding subsidiary of the company, plans to sell 100% of TMD LLC's shares to APC LLC at an initial transaction price of 40 million US dollars.
Investment highlights:
The transaction will have a significant impact on the company's results this year, laying the foundation for Grammer's American region to turn losses into profits. The deal is mainly due to poor synergy between TMD's products and the company's other products. The company plans to focus on its main business and enhance its core competitiveness through this deal. The sale of 100% of TMD LLC's shares will have a significant impact on the company's performance this year. According to the company's preliminary accounting, it is estimated that the loss will be 2.8 to 0.38 billion yuan. We believe that although this transaction will bear financial losses, it is a reflection of the company's orderly implementation of the optimization and adjustment of its business structure in the American region, finding the source of continuous losses, and solving problems at the source, laying a solid foundation for future business in North America without loss or even profit. We expect that the completion of the settlement will help improve the profitability and financial situation of the Grammer Americas region, thereby increasing the company's overall profitability.
Grammer America drastically reduced losses, and Grammer's integration entered the fast track. With 2024H1, Grammer achieved operating income of 8.625 billion yuan, -2.82% YoY, and an operating EBIT of 0.116 billion yuan, 43% YoY, and EBIT 0.126 billion yuan, or -26% YoY. Among them, Grammer America achieved revenue of 0.167 billion euros in 2024Q2, +5.6% year-on-year, and achieved an operating EBIT of -0.004 billion euros, drastically reducing losses. We believe that although Grammer will continue to be affected by overseas demand and challenged by costs, energy, and labor costs in 2024, thanks to the joint efforts of Ji Feng and Grammer, Grammer's integration has entered the fast track, and the company will continue to systematically take measures to further improve efficiency and reduce costs to advance the pace of global integration.
Profit forecast and investment rating As a leading domestic car seat headrest company, the company's product line is expanding horizontally and vertically. We are optimistic that emerging businesses such as passenger car seat assemblies will bring medium- to long-term performance increases to the company. However, Grammer's increased asset disposal and consolidation efforts in the American region have had a big impact on the company's profit level. We have adjusted the company's profit forecast. The company is expected to achieve operating income of 23.853, 28.053, and 31.581 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 18%, and 13%; achieving net profit to mother of 0.056, 0.801, and 1.119 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -72%, 1317%, and 40%; EPS is 0.04, 0.63, and 0.88 yuan. PE valuations corresponding to the current stock price are 265, 19, and 13 times, respectively. We are optimistic about the results of the company's seat business expansion and integration measures, and maintain the “gain” rating.
Risks suggest that equity disposal transactions fall short of expectations; raw material prices continue to rise; sales fall short of expectations; new customer expansion falls short of expectations; integration falls short of expectations; and overseas market expansion falls short of expectations.
