On September 24th, Financial Alliance News (Editor Huang Junzhi) After the strong performance of the US stock market this year, Ari Wald, Managing Director and Technical Analyst at the well-established US asset management institution - Oppenheimer Asset Management, stated that there is almost no sign indicating that the US stock market is about to peak, and the record-breaking market rally will continue.

In his latest report Wald wrote: "We continue to balance between seasonal headwinds and our view, that the evidence of the stock market about to peak is not convincing."

Wald explained that the number of stocks on the NYSE above the 200-day moving average exceeds 60%, which encourages him. This is a healthy signal of the market rally because it indicates that the rise in the US stock market is not only driven by a few large technology companies.

"We emphasize that market breadth remains constructive, and the current leadership in defensive sectors may represent a 'catch-up' for previously underperforming companies," he wrote.

The bull market will continue until next year.

According to the charts attached to his report, Wald stated that traders can buy the S&P 500 index last week as it broke through the new high point for the cycle, setting a stop loss at 5650 points upon closing. A stop loss is a risk management tool that automatically sells securities when a certain price is reached.

The report states that the stop loss point of 5650 points implies only a 1% downward potential for the S&P 500 index, while Wald's target price for the first half of 2025 is 6000 points, indicating a potential upward space of 5%. This target price is based on the median of the bull market cycle.

Wald further explained that the s&p 500 index rose 64% in the 23 months from October 2022 to September 2024. Meanwhile, since 1932, the median increase in the bull market cycle in the U.S. stock market over 32 months was 73%. At the same time, the average increase in the 34-month bull market cycle was 102%.

He pointed out that if the current bull market follows the path of the average bull market, the U.S. stock market could continue to rise until the end of 2025, with the s&p 500 index reaching around 7000 points. The target price of 7000 points is consistent with Evercore ISI's bullish forecast. The company stated in June that the artificial intelligence boom may drive the stock market higher in 2025.

Bullish on the sector.

Wald stated that beneath the surface of the overall market, he is encouraged by the 'correct' leaders, including the industrial sector consistently hitting new highs.

"We believe that the cycle peak in industrial stocks confirms a complete bull market," he wrote.

Wald also stated that the financial sector hitting historic highs is another positive signal for the overall stock market, with technology stocks potentially preparing for the next significant increase.

"In July, technology stocks retreated from historic highs, both in absolute and relative terms. While the sector's upward momentum has slowed, we still consider technology stocks as one of the market's strongest long-term pillars," he added.

Finally, he emphasized that the medical care industry is another market area displaying resilience, although lagging behind other sectors. While the medical care sector is breaking historical highs, it is dropping to multi-year lows relative to the s&p 500 index.

"We believe that the difference between the absolute trend and relative trend of the medical care sector illustrates the breadth of the market - even lagging industries are rebounding," he wrote, adding that similar situations have also occurred in the communications services and materials sectors.