As the US stocks continue to hit new record highs, the director and general manager of Oppenheimer, Wald,Technical Analysisstated that there are hardly any signs indicating that the market is about to peak.

In a report last weekend, he stated, 'We continue to weigh seasonal unfavorable factors, and we believe the evidence of a market top is not convincing.'

He is encouraged by the fact that the number of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange rising above the 200-day moving average exceeds 60%, which is a healthy sign of the market's rise, as it indicates that what drives the market higher is not just a few large technology companies.

Wald stated, 'We emphasize that market breadth still remains constructive, and the leadership of defensive sectors at present may represent the 'catch-up' of previously underperforming companies.'

Wald stated that based on the charts, traders can buy last week$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Set the stop-loss at 5650 points at the closing to break through the new high point.

The stop-loss target of 5650 points means there is only a 1% potential downside for the S&P 500 index, while Wald's target price for the index in the first half of 2025 is 6000 points, indicating a potential upside of 5%.

Wald's target price of 6000 points for the s&p 500 index is based on the median of past bull market cycles. He explained, "The s&p 500 index rose 64% in the 23 months from October 2022 to September 2024. Since 1932, the median increase in the bull market cycle of the US stock market over 32 months has been 73%." At the same time, the average increase in the 34-month bull market cycle is 102%.

If the current bull market follows the historical average level, US stocks could continue to rise until the end of 2025, with the s&p 500 index reaching around 7000 points by then.

The target price of 7000 points is in line with Evercore ISI's bullish forecast, which stated in June that the ai boom may drive the stock market higher in 2025.

Wald stated that within the overall market, he is particularly encouraged by the "correct" leaders, including the industrial sector, repeatedly hitting new highs. "We believe that the peak cycle of the industrial sector confirms a complete bull market," he said.

Wald believes that the financial sector hitting historic highs is another positive signal for the overall stock market, while the technology sector may be preparing for the next significant surge.

He said, "In July, both in absolute and relative terms, technology stocks have fallen from historical highs. Although the sector's upward momentum has slowed down, we still consider technology stocks to be one of the market's strongest long-term pillars."

Finally, Wald emphasized that the medical care sector is another area in the market showing resilience, despite lagging behind other sectors.

Although the medical care sector is breaking historical highs, it is falling to multi-year lows relative to the s&p 500 index.

Wald said, "We believe that the divergence between the absolute trend and relative trend in medical care indicates that the market breadth is expanding, even lagging industries are rebounding."

According to the report, similar situations have also been observed in communications services and cailiaohangye.

编辑/Wade