On September 24th, the cryptocurrency market fluctuated and rose, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ currently slightly up, trading at $63,359; $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ previously breaking through $2,700, then falling back and now slightly rising again, currently trading at $2,641.
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Chicago Fed Report: The current financial industry is the most accommodative since November 2021, potentially favorable for Bitcoin development.
According to the report from the Chicago Fed, the current situation in the financial industry is the most accommodative since November 2021, which may be favorable for the development of bitcoin.
Analysis: Following the rate cut by the Federal Reserve, ethereum outperformed bitcoin, and market sentiment tended to be bullish.
Since the Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 50 basis points last Wednesday, Ethereum has outperformed bitcoin. This upward trend coincides with the significant increase in ETH's open interest-weighted perpetual futures funding rate, indicating a stronger demand for long positions and traders' growing optimism about a potential rise in ETH price. (The Block)
Data: 94.09% of the total supply of bitcoin has already been mined.
According to HODL 15Capital monitoring data, out of the total supply of 21 million bitcoins, 19.7579 million have been mined, leaving only 5.91% of the remaining bitcoins available for mining.
Analysis: The trend of bitcoin this year after the halving is similar to 2020, laying the foundation for a potential uptrend.
Rekt Capital compared the periods after the bitcoin halvings in 2020 and 2024, finding a high degree of similarity. After both halving events, bitcoin entered a continuous accumulation phase of about 161 days. In 2020, this period ended with a parabolic rebound as bitcoin broke through its repeatedly tested resistance levels. Both periods showed persistent testing of support and resistance levels, establishing a potential upward momentum. Despite historical patterns suggesting significant changes could occur, differences in market conditions (such as trading volume) highlight that outcomes may not be identical. The significant difference between these two periods lies in the trading volume (data is sourced from Bitstamp).Resistanceand resistance levels both exhibit continuous testing and retesting, laying the groundwork for a possible uptrend. Although historical patterns indicate the potential for major shifts, differences in market conditions (such as trading volume) suggest that outcomes may vary. The notable distinction between these two periods lies in the trading volume (data from Bitstamp used in the charts).
In 2020, Bitstamp's Bitcoin trading volume was 1.183 million in the 161 days after the halving event, while in 2024 the volume was 313,081. This difference indicates a change in market participation, which may affect the nature of any potential breakthrough. Since this year's halving, all exchanges' trading volume has been 2.5 million, while in the 161 days after halving in 2020, the volume was 4 million. (CryptoSlate)
The correlation between cryptocurrencies and US stocks has reached close to historical levels after the Fed's interest rate cut.
According to correlation studies, the correlation between digital assets and the US stock market has almost reached historically high levels, indicating that macroeconomic variables driving the stock market are also influencing the cryptocurrency market. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that the correlation coefficient between the indicators of the 100 largest digital assets and the S&P 500 index is approximately 0.67 for 40 days, reaching this level only in the second quarter of 2022 when it reached 0.72. A coefficient of 1 indicates identical asset trends, while -1 indicates completely opposite trends.
Last week, the Federal Reserve sharply cut interest rates by 50 basis points, starting the expected period of monetary easing. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of digital asset derivatives trading liquidity provider Orbit Markets, said, "Macro factors are currently driving the rise in cryptocurrency prices, a trend that is expected to continue throughout the Fed's easing cycle unless we see specific black swan events specific to cryptocurrencies."
This week's focus will be on comments from Federal Reserve officials and the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). Sean McNulty, Head of Trading at liquidity provider Arbelos Markets, said, "We believe that speakers are more important than PCE inflation data because the market is currently trying to understand the reaction function of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)."
Bankless founder: Harris' support for the cryptocurrency industry statement is "better late than never," catching up with Trump still has a lot to do.
Bankless founder David Hoffman stated in a post on X: "Harris's support for the crypto industry came too late, nonetheless, it's good for the industry. To be on par with Trump in the crypto domain, she still has many things to do. Hopefully, this momentum continues."
Greeks.live: Confidence in the current cryptocurrency market has recovered, and the intensive comments from several Federal Reserve officials this week are worth watching.
Adam, a macro analyst at Greeks.live, stated on the X platform that the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at last week's meeting, significantly boosting the crypto market. This week, many Federal Reserve officials have spoken intensively, and the direction of their speeches is worth paying attention to. The Token2049 event concluded without much new information on crypto projects, resulting in a lukewarm market reaction. After all, only price and news influencing prices can attract attention. Currently, market confidence has slightly recovered, and the market is at a bottoming phase.
Looking ahead in the crypto market, the 50 basis point rate cut has boosted the market, with some active projects emerging. The speeches of four Federal Reserve officials this Thursday are worth noting. The main term IV is at a low level, making it a good opportunity to position some medium to long-term assets. Historically, October has seen favorable market conditions, making it a good buying opportunity now. Additionally, Zhao Changpeng is set to be released from jail this Sunday, which deserves attention. In the crypto lending market, the Bitfinex lending market has been relatively stable recently. Be proactive in executing suitable rate orders, especially during active market conditions.
hkex: Currently, there are ten virtual asset ETPs to choose from.
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited announced that the ETP (Exchange-Traded Product) market, including ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) and leveraged and inverse products, has seen a wave of new product listings this year. Hong Kong's thematic ETF market continues to diversify, with new ETFs invested in various fields such as AI and automation, digital payments, and Web3 gradually entering the market this year. One of the most anticipated newly listed ETPs is Asia's first Bitcoin inverse product, which was listed on the Hong Kong Exchange in July to provide investors with a new tool to capture Bitcoin price movements. With the first six virtual asset spot ETFs in Asia listed in Hong Kong in April, along with the first three virtual asset futures ETFs listed in December 2022 and January 2023, the market value of Hong Kong's virtual asset ETF market had grown to over HK$3.2 billion by the end of August, with a total of ten virtual asset ETPs currently available for selection on the Hong Kong Exchange.
BlackRock validates Bitcoin holdings through blockchain nodes to ensure the security of ETF assets.
According to renowned ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, global asset management giant BlackRock checks the balance of its bitcoin addresses daily from Coinbase Prime through its own blockchain nodes to verify the bitcoin holdings of its spot bitcoin ETF. While this data is only available to institutional clients, BlackRock has earned broad trust with its flawless 30-year track record. Unlike platforms like FTX, BlackRock's ETF system is highly transparent and secure, consistently following strict custody procedures. Despite market doubts about the transparency of its bitcoin transactions, Balchunas emphasizes that BlackRock ensures the security of assets and customer trust through self-custody and blockchain verification.
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