Is Harris going to make a big move?

The US presidential election has entered a crucial countdown stage. According to the latest news from foreign media, US Vice President Harris is preparing to unveil a "new move". She may announce new economic proposals this week, which have never been reported before.

At the same time, Harris's approval ratings have also risen. On September 22 local time, a survey released by NBC showed Harris leading Trump by a 5 percentage point advantage. The margin of error for the above poll is 3 percentage points.

However, some American media outlets have pointed out that this year's U.S. presidential election is the most evenly matched of the century, with even slightly changes in any direction potentially leading to vastly different results.

Renowned American hedge fund manager John Paulson stated in a media interview last week that if Harris wins in the end, he will withdraw from the markets, while Tesla CEO Musk has issued even more ominous signals. When a netizen shared a video clip of Paulson's interview on Platform X, Musk commented: 'Buffett is already preparing for this outcome.' He referred to Buffett's record cash reserves under Berkshire Hathaway, which reached $277 billion by the end of the second quarter, and is currently selling off a large amount of shares in some key investments.

Harris's new move

According to Reuters, three sources revealed that U.S. Vice President Harris plans to launch a set of new economic policy proposals this week aimed at helping Americans accumulate wealth. The proposals also aim to establish economic incentives for businesses to help achieve this goal.

Sources state that these new policy proposals have never been reported before and may be announced in Pittsburgh this Wednesday. Because there are still some undecided voters who want more information and understand how Harris will help them economically if she is elected president in November, including those crucial swing states.

Harris also stated on the 22nd that she will outline her vision for the economy in her speech this week. She added that the plan aims to invest in the desires and aspirations of the American people while addressing the challenges they face. Earlier, there was a fierce debate within the Democratic Party on whether releasing more economic policies before election day is a wise strategy.

"This is not only about affordability, but also about showing voters a path to wealth accumulation." A source familiar with Harris's economic plan said she wants to show Americans how they can "gain a foothold." Reports indicate that all sources did not provide specific details on expected new policies, and Harris's campaign team will not comment on any new proposals. However, Harris's 2020 presidential campaign and President Biden's administration have set similar target plans.

Some advisors analyze that releasing new economic policies less than 50 days before the intense presidential election may not impress key voters. However, due to Harris taking over from Biden at the end of July and becoming a candidate, "this is not a typical campaign." "We must continue to persuade and mobilize the public until the last moment," a source said. Some analysts state that many of Harris's proposals would require congressional approval, and it is unlikely to pass unless the Democratic Party wins both houses of Congress.

In mid-August of this year, Harris delivered her first economic policy agenda speech after announcing her candidacy. Overall, her economic agenda focuses on "an economy of opportunity," with an emphasis on reducing the cost of living. According to her, here "opportunity" refers to the opportunity for American households to excel, accumulate wealth for future generations, rather than just scraping by day to day.

In this economic policy outline, Harris focuses on the cost of living for American families, involving lowering food prices, taxes, housing costs, and medical expenses. She proposes tax cuts for most Americans, bans price gouging, lowers the cost of groceries and other essentials, and builds more affordable housing as part of her "economy of opportunity" plan when she enters the White House.

Regarding the soaring housing prices and rents in the United States, Harris has introduced a combination of measures including home purchase subsidies, increasing housing supply, and combating malicious rent increases to reduce residents' housing costs. Specifically, Harris promises to provide a $25,000 subsidy for first-time homebuyers; build 3 million new affordable homes and rental units for the middle class by the end of the first term to tackle America's housing shortage; enact laws to combat anti-competitive practices of "corporate landlords" artificially raising rents, and more. In addition, Harris commits to further reduce medical costs. This includes increasing insurance subsidies for the federal government's health insurance marketplace, setting an annual $2,000 cap on out-of-pocket prescription drug costs for all Americans, relieving millions of Americans from medical debt, etc.

Some economists point out that from a financial perspective, Harris's economic policy agenda of "reducing prices + cutting taxes + high social security" also means that after the election, the U.S. fiscal deficit is likely to rise and debt pressure will continue to increase long term.

Poll support rates are rising.

On September 22, local time, a national survey released by NBC in the USA showed Harris leading Trump by 5 percentage points. The survey found that since she became the Democratic presidential candidate, respondents' views of her have significantly improved.

NBC conducted a poll of 1,000 registered voters from September 13 to 17, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. The poll showed that when asked about their views on Harris since she became the nominee, 48% of the surveyed 1,000 registered voters expressed a positive view, up from 32% in July. The last time a U.S. politician's approval rating saw such a large increase was after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks with President George W. Bush.

When asked about Trump, 40% of respondents said they had a positive attitude towards him, compared to 38% in July.

Another poll by CBS in the USA found that among potential voters, Harris leads Trump by 52% to 48%, a 4 percentage point lead with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. This is attributed to her performance in the debate on September 10 and encouraging economic news.

The latest survey by The Guardian yielded the same results. The 10-day average of surveys by The Guardian up to September 19 shows Harris' lead over Trump has expanded to 2.6 percentage points, with support rates of 48.5% and 45.9% respectively.

A Morning Consult poll of over 11,000 respondents showed Harris leading Trump by 51% to 45%, marking her largest poll lead since taking over as the Democratic presidential candidate from Joe Biden.

While national polls in the USA provide important signals about voter opinions, the results in each state by the Electoral College determine the ultimate winner, with a few battleground states potentially playing a decisive role.

An analysis article by CNN on September 22 pointed out that this year's U.S. presidential election is the most evenly matched battle of the century, where 'even the slightest change in any direction could lead to vastly different results.'

The main reason for the above article's judgment is that since the televised debate between the U.S. Democratic and Republican presidential candidates on September 10th, although Vice President Harris seems to have a slight advantage over former President Trump in national opinion polls, the margin of advantage often falls within the margin of error. When considering the Electoral College system of the U.S. presidential election, it becomes even more difficult to determine the winner between the two.

Although public opinion generally agrees that Harris defeated Trump with a 'dominant performance' in the debate on the 10th, this only seems to have increased her support rate by a few percentage points.

On the 22nd, the American Broadcasting Company and the National Broadcasting Company released two latest polling results, showing that Harris has achieved her largest advantage over Trump so far, but only leads by four to five percentage points. In the equivalent polls at this stage in the 2016 and 2020 elections, Democratic presidential candidates led by at least twice the margin that Harris currently leads.

After the debate, national surveys involving media such as ABC, Fox News, and The New York Times reflected similar results. According to the latest 'Opinion Poll Survey' by CNN, Harris currently leads by an average of three percentage points nationwide. Three percentage points mean that Harris's victory is 'far from secure'.

Since the start of this year's U.S. presidential election, the two parties' candidates have remained evenly matched, with most voters seemingly 'locked in'. Including the current President Biden, who withdrew in July, no candidate has ever led their opponent by at least five percentage points in national polls.

According to the article, this situation is 'quite unusual, worth paying attention to,' and may need to be traced back to the 1960s to find a similar electoral landscape. In the past 60 years, there have been presidential candidates who have maintained an advantage of at least five percentage points for at least three weeks during the campaign period.

More important than the polls is the fact that the final result of the U.S. presidential election depends on who can secure at least 270 Electoral College votes. Nate Silver, a well-known U.S. election analyst who founded the '538' polling website, estimates that Harris would need to win the popular vote by at least three percentage points to have a clear advantage in Electoral College votes, 'but she hasn't reached that point yet'.

Based on the current estimation of support by CNN, Harris now has the assurance of 225 Electoral College votes, while Trump has the assurance of 219. The allocation of Electoral College votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and the second district of Nebraska is still pending.

Starting from September 20th, states like Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia have already started early in-person voting. By mid-October, more than 10 other states will also begin in-person voting. The article concludes by stating: "Most importantly, the level of competitiveness in this year's presidential election is unparalleled."