DexCom, Inc. (NASDAQ:DXCM) shareholders might understandably be very concerned that the share price has dropped 36% in the last quarter. But at least the stock is up over the last five years. In that time, it is up 89%, which isn't bad, but is below the market return of 106%. While the returns over the last 5 years have been good, we do feel sorry for those shareholders who haven't held shares that long, because the share price is down 49% in the last three years.
Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the five years of share price growth, DexCom moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd hope to see the share price to rise. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. In fact, the DexCom stock price is 49% lower in the last three years. Meanwhile, EPS is up 4.5% per year. So there seems to be a mismatch between the positive EPS growth and the change in the share price, which is down -20% per year.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that DexCom has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 32% in the last year, DexCom shareholders lost 18%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 14% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - DexCom has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
