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分析师:高通收购英特尔希望渺茫,获得外部投资可能性更大

Analyst: Qualcomm's acquisition of Intel seems unlikely, with a greater possibility of obtaining external investments.

Sina Technology ·  Sep 23 22:17

Source: Sina Technology In 2023, 23-year-old Sam Altman (Sam Altman) spoke enthusiastically at the company's annual developer conference, praising the company's new app store for promoting his developed software (a friend positioning service called Loopt). "We think this is a new mobile era and we are excited to participate in it," Altman said. Today, 16 years later, Apple has invited this entrepreneur again - but the situation is different this time. Now the company needs his help, just as he needed Apple. Currently, the OpenAI startup run by Altman is at the forefront of the generative AI field. In order to catch up in this field, Apple has established a partnership with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT into iPhone's operating system. Although the controversial Altman is unlikely to appear on stage at the press conference, this agreement will be the focus of next week's Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, indicating how much the power dynamics in Silicon Valley have changed in recent years. This agreement allows OpenAI to reach millions of Apple users, including those who may hesitate to use ChatGPT. For Apple, this collaboration brings the hottest technology of the artificial intelligence era - a chatbot with super powers that can be combined with its own services. Apple has been developing a series of artificial intelligence features, including features that run on its devices and other features that require cloud computing. Apple has also introduced artificial intelligence technology for the Siri digital assistant, but the company's self-developed chatbots have not yet met standards. Technology veteran Dag Kittlaus said that the collaboration with OpenAI is likely to be a "medium-term relationship" for Apple. Before Siri was acquired by Apple, he was co-founder and operator of Siri. "But one thing is certain, they will strive to cultivate their own capabilities in this regard. " On the morning of June 11th Beijing time, CEO Tim Cook will deliver a keynote speech at the Worldwide Developers Conference, which is considered the largest sales promotion of Apple in recent years. The company must convince consumers, developers and investors that Apple can thrive in the era of artificial intelligence. Due to the stagnation of Apple's existing businesses, five of its six quarters' revenue declined, and it faces greater pressure. In the field of artificial intelligence services, Apple once took the lead by releasing the Siri digital assistant in 2011, ahead of Amazon's Alexa and Google Assistant entering the market. But the company quickly fell behind its competitors, and the first appearance of ChatGPT in 2022 caused earth-shaking changes. In November 2022, OpenAI's chatbot inspired consumer imagination and prompted tech giants to compete to develop their own artificial intelligence services. Since then, Apple's main competitors have made progress. Gemini's chatbot is competing with ChatGPT for the dominant position in this emerging market. Microsoft is OpenAI's biggest supporter and has begun to integrate its AI-assisted Copilot into software. Amazon has also demonstrated an artificial intelligence-enhanced version of the Alexa voice assistant. In contrast, Apple has remained silent about its ambitions in artificial intelligence until now. Cook said last year that the company will act cautiously in new areas and will only add artificial intelligence technology on a "thoughtful basis." Recently, he believes that Apple will have an advantage in the field of artificial intelligence because the company can seamlessly integrate hardware, software and services together. Behind the scenes, Apple employees have been working hard to fulfill this promise. Before and after the release of ChatGPT, a small team in Apple's artificial intelligence and software engineering departments began using a framework called Ajax to develop ChatGPT's competitors. Apple software chief Craig Federighi urged managers to add as many artificial intelligence features as possible to the latest version of the iPhone and iPad operating system (internally referred to as "Crystal"). The service department led by Eddie Cue began to build the infrastructure of new data centers to support online artificial intelligence services. Employees also began researching how to apply artificial intelligence to Apple Music and the company's productivity applications.

Bob O'Donnell, founder of the research company TECHnalysis Research, stated today that the rumored qualcomm acquisition of intel trade is of great concern on many levels, but the actual likelihood of it happening is very low. Apart from antitrust review factors, qualcomm is also unlikely to want all of intel's business.

Recently, informed sources have claimed that Qualcomm has recently been in contact with Intel to discuss the possibility of acquiring this troubled chip manufacturer. Many analysts believe that this potential deal could accelerate Qualcomm's diversification process. However, at the same time, it will also bring some burdens to Qualcomm, such as Intel's loss-making semiconductor manufacturing division.

O'Donnell stated, "The rumored Qualcomm acquisition of Intel transaction is of concern on many levels, and from a purely product perspective, there is also some rationale because both sides have many complementary product lines."

"However, the likelihood of this deal actually happening is very low. In addition, Qualcomm is also unlikely to want all of Intel's business, but trying to separate the product business from the foundry business is also impossible now."

As a former dominant force in the semiconductor industry with a history of more than 50 years, Intel is currently facing its worst moment, with increasing losses in its chip foundry division. At the same time, after missing the investment in OpenAI, Intel also missed out on the prosperity of generative AI.

Now, Intel's market cap has fallen below $100 billion for the first time in thirty years. As of last Friday's close, its market cap is less than half of Qualcomm's, which is approximately $190 billion.

Considering that Qualcomm only has about $7.77 billion in cash and cash equivalents (as of June 23), analysts expect that this potential deal will mainly be financed through stock, which will have a highly dilutive effect on Qualcomm investors and may raise some concerns.

Under the leadership of CEO Cristiano Amon, Qualcomm has accelerated its business beyond its main smart phone business, providing chips for industries such as autos and PCs. However, Qualcomm still overly relies on the mobile market, and due to the impact of declining demand after the pandemic, this market has been struggling in recent years.

Insiders said that Amon personally participated in the negotiations to acquire Intel and has been exploring various transaction options for the company.

This is not the first time Qualcomm has carried out a large-scale acquisition. As early as 2016, Qualcomm proposed a $44 billion acquisition of competitor NXP Semiconductors, but two years later, the deal was abandoned due to failure to obtain regulatory approval.

Intel mainly designs and manufactures chips to power PCs and datacenters, but Qualcomm has never operated chip factories. Instead, it uses contract manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor, as well as designs and other technologies provided by Arm.

Analysts believe that Qualcomm lacks the experience needed to strengthen Intel's emerging contract manufacturing business. Recently, Intel has designated Amazon as its first major customer for the contract manufacturing business.

Stacy Rasgon, analyst at Bernstein Research, said: 'We also don't know why Qualcomm would be a better owner of these assets.'

Rasgon also added: 'We believe that no one else would really want to operate them (chip contract manufacturing business), but it's also unlikely to abolish them politically.'

Intel's contract manufacturing business is seen as crucial for developing the U.S. chip manufacturing industry. The company has received approximately $19.5 billion in federal grants and loans under the Chip Act to build and expand factories in four states in the USA.

Some analysts suggest that Intel may prefer external investments over selling. They also point out that Intel has recently stated plans to spin off its chip manufacturing business and establish it as an independent subsidiary.

Furthermore, there were reports earlier today suggesting that Apollo Global Management has proposed an investment of up to $5 billion to Intel. Currently, Apollo Global Management is already a partner of Intel's Ireland factory.

In addition, Qualcomm may decide to acquire part of Intel's business rather than the entire company. Earlier this month, there were reports that Qualcomm is particularly interested in Intel's PC design division.

Editor/Jeffy

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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