Despite an already strong run, LifeVantage Corporation (NASDAQ:LFVN) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 25% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 65% in the last year.
Following the firm bounce in price, given close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 18x, you may consider LifeVantage as a stock to avoid entirely with its 45.8x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Earnings have risen firmly for LifeVantage recently, which is pleasing to see. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this respectable earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
How Is LifeVantage's Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, LifeVantage would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 17% gain to the company's bottom line. Still, incredibly EPS has fallen 74% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 15% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.
In light of this, it's alarming that LifeVantage's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
The strong share price surge has got LifeVantage's P/E rushing to great heights as well. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of LifeVantage revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 4 warning signs for LifeVantage (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than LifeVantage. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.