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新产业(300832):国产化学发光先锋 进口替代+海外突破夯实增长根基

New industry (300832): domestic chemical luminescence pioneer import substitutation+overseas breakthrough consolidates the foundation for growth

Guosheng Securities ·  Sep 23

A pioneer in domestic chemiluminescence, continuous enrichment and improvement of instruments+reagents, domestic+overseas biaxial drive development. The new industry was founded in 1995 and has been deeply involved in the field of chemiluminescence for nearly 30 years. The leading competitiveness continues to be consolidated, expanding horizontally to biochemical, molecular, and blood coagulation tracks, and opening up new growth points with a diversified layout. Chemiluminescence is the largest fine molecule field of IVD. The market size in 2022 is nearly 40 billion yuan, but the four major imported brands of “Royalbesi” account for more than 70% of the market share, and there is plenty of room for domestic replacement. The company's instrument+reagent product layout is perfect, and domestic and overseas dual-drive development has helped performance continue to grow rapidly. In 2012-2023, the company's revenue side and profit side CAGR were 28.09% and 32.45% respectively, maintaining a high growth trend despite disturbances in global public health events.

Instruments continue to change to high throughput, helping high-end customers continue to break through. In 2018, the company launched the world's first 600-speed high-end luminometer X8, and in 2024, released the higher-throughput X10 and the self-developed assembly line SATLARS T8, which laid the foundation for a breakthrough in the high-end market. 2024H1 completed 796 chemiluminescence installations in the domestic market, with large-scale machines accounting for 75.13% (up 14.58pct year-on-year), helping to accelerate breakthroughs for high-end customers. The number of tertiary hospitals served by the company increased from 907 in 2019 to 1,636 in 2024H1, and the coverage rate of the top three hospitals increased from 47.9% in 2020 to 60.2% in 2024H1, which is expected to drive continued growth in reagent sales.

The reagent testing menu is complete, and the raw material self-production+small molecule sandwich method creates unique advantages. The company has a rich reagent testing menu, and reagents are always at the forefront when going overseas. It is the first chemiluminescence manufacturer in China to obtain Celist Class A certification for infectious disease projects HBV, HCV, and HIV. As of 2024H1, the company has 202 chemiluminescence supporting reagents for tumors, thyroid, infectious diseases, gonadal glands, myocardium, etc. Of these, 191 have obtained EU approval and 181 have obtained domestic market registration certificates. It is one of the manufacturers with the widest coverage of chemiluminescence projects in China. The key raw material research and development platform fully empowers reagent research and development, effectively alleviates the problems of difficult and expensive raw material procurement, and also helps improve reagent performance. The company has developed small-molecule sandwich technology and launched 8 small-molecule double antibody sandwich reagents, including 25-hydroxyvitamin D, aldosterone, estradiol, and tacrolimus, which are more sensitive than competitive methods. Self-developed raw materials and polished small molecule sandwich methods have established a competitive advantage for reagents.

Two-wheel drive has grown at home and abroad, overseas regionalization management has achieved results, and revenue and profit have both resonated. The domestic chemiluminescence market is mainly dominated by importers, and there is broad space for domestic alternatives. The company actively embraces collection, and is expected to achieve a rapid increase in market share. The company has a complete domestic marketing network with 28 offices to continuously improve customer service levels and maintain a leading position in the market. The company adheres to two-wheel drive at home and abroad, and refines overseas markets. It has set up 10 overseas subsidiaries, and its products have been sold to 155 overseas countries and regions. Overseas markets continued to achieve breakthroughs. The 2024H1 overseas market achieved 2,281 chemiluminescence installations, accounting for 64.80% of the installed capacity of medium and large machines (up 10.07pct from the previous year), and the total number of high-speed X8 units installed worldwide reached 3,170, laying a solid foundation for overseas reagent sales. In 2012-2023, overseas business revenue increased from 0.036 billion yuan to 1.322 billion yuan (CAGR was 38.59%), and gross margin also increased from 57.6% in 2014 to 65.8% in 2023. As the share of overseas medium and large machines installed increases and the share of overseas reagent revenue increases (from 49.6% in 2017 to 58.0% in 2023), overseas business is expected to resonate with both revenue growth and improved profitability.

Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 4.902, 6.085, and 7.547 billion yuan, respectively, up 24.7%, 24.1%, and 24.0% year on year; net profit to mother will be 2.056, 2.62, and 3.335 billion yuan, respectively, up 24.4%, 27.3% year on year, respectively, covering the first time and giving a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: industry policy risk, overseas market development falls short of expectations, competition increases risk, risk of data lag, risk of statistical error.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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